Steel New Year suffers a severe setback

On Monday, the HRC 1505 contract and the thread 1505 contract fell 3.57% and 2.42%, respectively, making it a real brother in the commodity market. Looking back for the past four trading days, the “Brothers” came out of the four Lianyin, among which the HRC 1505 contract fell from 2,930 yuan/ton to 2,752 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 6.27%; the thread 1505 contract from 2,615 yuan/ton It fell to RMB 2,502/t with a cumulative decrease of 4.47%. “The data on CPI and PPI released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday was poor. Overly reliant on the cumulative outbreak of investment to stimulate economic growth and unreasonable economic structure broke out. This led to a greater risk of deflation in the country. This kind of deflation is mainly The characteristics of insufficient demand and oversupply are present, and it is also a fundamental internal cause of the weak steel market,” said Bao Dong, a researcher at Baocheng City, in an interview with a China Securities Journal reporter. The most intuitive reason for the decline in the trend after the recent rebound of steel products is that spot prices continue to decline. According to the data, the billet price dropped by RMB 60/ton last weekend and fell by RMB 30/ton on January 12. The Tangshan billet, which is known as a “wind vane” for steel, fell to RMB 2,060/ton; Shanghai's rebar fell last week. Up to RMB 40/t, yesterday's HRC in Shanghai dropped by RMB 30-60/t, and the current rebar spot price in the Beijing market has dropped to RMB 2320/t. "The reasons for the decline of the spot are two points. First, the current cold winter temperatures are not conducive to construction on the site, and the rigid demand for rebar is reduced. In addition, the current steel social inventory is a new low in recent years, and the midstream and downstream do not prepare inventory, which makes the total steel The demand is even more depressed. Second, the steel mills are under more pressure. In mid-December last year, the stocks of steel mills were 15% more than last year, and the steel mills have the incentive to sell their inventories.” Researcher Li Wenxuan believes that the main influencing factors of current steel products The improvement in policy and currency conditions has a positive effect on the market's expectation of warming, but weak actual demand also constrains the rise of the futures steel. In the future, steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is difficult to form a large trend market.