Photovoltaic industry capacity imbalance has not dispersed

“Overcapacity, export obstruction, and overall industry loss can be regarded as the darkest year for the photovoltaic industry in 2012. After nearly two years of hardship, 2013 may be the turning point in the photovoltaic industry.” ChinaVenture Investment Group Analyst Lee Ling said. Li Ling believes that “the entire photovoltaic industry will usher in full integration, achieve survival of the fittest, low production capacity and efficiency, low management level, outdated business concepts will be eliminated or merged. It is expected that the situation of large losses in the entire industry in 2013 is expected to improve The photovoltaic industry will gradually return to the right track."

“Although efforts are made to control production capacity at the policy level and vigorously develop the domestic market, the imbalance of capacity in the short term will not be solved immediately. Adjustment of the production capacity imbalance will also need to go through this process in 2013.” Wei Qidong, former secretary general of Jiangsu Photovoltaic Industry Association Indicated.

“The components will still be under pressure of phase imbalance. Under the influence of “double reverse,” foreign demand for China’s components is expected to be 10 GW, and the introduction of relevant domestic promotion policies will bring domestic demand to 10 GW, a total of about 20 GW of actual demand, but in 2012 The integration of the production capacity of PV modules in China has not been effective, and it will continue to bear the imbalance of production capacity in 2013.” said Wang Bohua, secretary general of China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance.

Wang Bohua believes that China's photovoltaic industry faces at least two challenges: First, the lack of technology and innovation, the follow-up development is facing challenges. In the early stage of development, China's photovoltaic industry mainly reduces the cost and earns processing and manufacturing costs through stacking wood-based expansion of industrial scale. However, there are still major gaps in key technologies. Some key equipment and electronic materials such as fully automatic screen printing machines and silver paste materials And so still rely on imports. The development of basic theory and core technology lags behind, and there is a shortage of new product and new technology storage for new laminated batteries. Follow-up development is not optimistic.

The other is that the international trade environment is deteriorating and the industry is in danger of hollowing out. The United States and the European Union have successively launched the “Double Counter” survey on photovoltaic products in China, which involves nearly 80% of China’s solar cell products.

On the one hand, trade barriers have aggravated the plight of China's photovoltaic industry. For example, if it is not possible to compensate for the loss of European and American markets through the development of other markets for a short period of time, China's photovoltaic companies will face a large number of extinctions. On the other hand, the deterioration of the international trade situation will force China's photovoltaic industry to accelerate the transfer, to avoid the risks of international trade and get closer to the terminal market, and eventually lead to the hollowing out of local industries.

In addition, Wang Bohua believes that "since the exit mechanism of enterprises is still not perfect, and the blind assistance of local governments, the pace of elimination of outdated production capacity of domestic photovoltaic companies has been slow. In addition, it is subject to production line support, layout, cost and energy consumption control issues. Affected, large polysilicon companies are unwilling to merge with smaller plants; component companies also have difficulties integrating due to brand, quality assurance, and after-sales reasons. The imbalance between industry supply and demand is difficult to alleviate in a short period of time."