In a newly released report, Moody's economic analyst Chen Zhixiong pointed out that as non-food prices stabilize, China will have to cope with inflationary pressures, and further tightening of monetary policy is very necessary, but China's economy will gradually move toward a soft landing.
Chen Zhixiong believes that if the government is committed to aligning the economy with growth targets, China's economic growth will slow down in the second half of the year. Moody's believes that China's GDP is expected to be 9.2% this year compared to 10.4% in 2010 and 9% in 2012.
Chen Zhixiong said that China is gradually moving towards a soft landing. The April data showed that the trade surplus rebounded. Due to historical factors, trade remained in a surplus position, but the surge in commodity prices narrowed the surplus. With the preparation of more economic houses in the “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, real estate construction is still prosperous, and the growth of fixed asset investment will also accelerate.
The analysis report said that as food prices fall and global commodity prices fall due to lower costs, the overall inflation rate will decline in the second quarter of this year. This gives the government room for price increases and electricity price increases. As non-food prices stabilize, further currency tightening is necessary to counter inflationary pressures.
Chen Zhixiong also expects the deposit reserve ratio to rise from the current 21% to 22%, while the other three rates will increase at the end of the year. Chen Zhixiong said that the decline in net exports was replaced by domestic demand, but in the form of investment rather than consumption. For countries that accounted for 40% of GDP before the 2008 crisis, this is not sustainable. China's domestic fixed asset investment has accounted for 47% of GDP by 2010. If it continues, it means that the local government's financial instruments will have to bear more debt. In addition, the share of consumption in China's GDP is relatively flat. Personal consumption fell from 2007 to 35% of GDP and will remain at this level. In comparison, South Korea's consumption accounts for 53% of GDP, Japan is 58%, and the United States is nearly 71%.
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