The demand is suppressed and the price is under pressure? This economic law may be an exception for Chinese rare earths.
Japan Earthquake Shockwave
Japanese strong earthquakes are difficult to suppress rare earth senators to pressure China
The demand is suppressed and the price is under pressure? This economic law may be an exception for Chinese rare earths.
"The earthquake in Japan will certainly have a certain impact on the export of rare earths, but the impact is mainly for Japan, and will not affect China's rare earth industry, enterprises and prices." Yesterday, Wang Caifeng, deputy inspector of the Raw Materials Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, told the Morning Post reporter.
It can be seen that at present, China's rare earths are “up and downâ€. The data shows that the price of rare earths has skyrocketed in the past week (March 7 to 11), with the price of antimony oxide soaring by 31% and the price of antimony oxide by 24%. The price of antimony oxide rose by 17% from the beginning of the year.
"The earthquake is just a concept of hype."
On March 11, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake struck Japan as China's largest rare earth importer, causing many cars and semiconductor factories in Japan that need to use rare earth materials to stop production or reduce production.
The market is worried that the temporary suspension of work in Japan, coupled with the disruption of ports and power grids, may lead to delays in shipments of rare earths. Reuters quoted Jon Hykawy, a rare earth analyst at Byron Capital Markets, as saying on the 15th: "The impact of the earthquake in Japan on the rare earth market may last for two to four months, during which prices may fall."
According to customs statistics, China's exports of rare earth oxides to Japan in 2010 accounted for about 43% of China's total exports of rare earth oxides.
According to data from Shanghai Metal Network, Japan imported 23,310 tons of rare earths from China in 2010, accounting for 82% of its total imports. Among them, Japan imported the most oxide products of strontium and barium, accounting for 20% and 25% of the total imports, respectively, while imports of cerium oxide were less, accounting for only about 3.5%.
According to a research report provided by Guobo Securities analyst Peng Bo, Japan's rare earth consumption is mainly concentrated in the field of glass ceramics (polishing powder and glass catalyst), mainly for functional ceramics, such as multilayer ceramic capacitors, optical fiber amplifiers for optical communication and optical isolation. New materials such as microwave ferrites for microwave communication and ferrules for connecting optical fibers.
Wang Caifeng introduced that rare earth materials including NdFeB materials should be used in Japanese automobiles, motors and electronic products.
The main Guangzhao Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. ( 75.83 , 0.00 , 0.00% ) Metal Co., Ltd. (Guangxi Nonferrous, 600259), who is not interested in the name of the South China Sea, said that it is paying attention to the earthquake in Japan. For the impact of China's rare earth industry, the company's rare earth exports to Japan are rare. It is expected that the earthquake is only a concept of speculation for rare earths.
US Senate joined forces to pressure
Wang Caifeng also holds the same view. Wang Caifeng, who is the head of the preparatory group of China Rare Earth Industry Association, said: "It is difficult for the earthquake to suppress the price increase of rare earths. The reduction of rare earth exports will definitely increase the price, and the rise and fall will mainly lie in the market."
China's rare earth reserves are only one-third of the world's total, but production accounts for more than 95% of the world's total. In the first half of this year, China cut about 35% of its rare earth export quota. China Securities Journal reported on the 14th that Minister of Commerce Chen Deming (column) said on the 13th that the second batch of rare earth export quotas will be announced in 2011. The annual increase or decrease of quotas compared with last year is still uncertain, still in the final study. stage. After the report was released, the news came out immediately. US heavyweight Senator Schumer and three other Democrats sent a letter to US Treasury Secretary Geithner and US Interior Minister Salazar, requesting the use of the United States at the World Bank and other multilateral banks. The influence of China is blocking investment in China's mineral projects in the United States or elsewhere until China stops “hoarding†associated with rare earth elements.
"Rare earths are small varieties, and the sensitivity is not high due to market supply and demand. This year's rare earth price increase is related to the reluctance of many enterprises. When the central enterprises are out of stock, the price will go up, and there is a relatively large relationship with national policies."晟 Colored anonymous staff said.
Peng Bo believes that Japan's rare earth import bay is concentrated in the southwestern region of Japan and was less affected by the earthquake.
"From now on, there is no particularly large impact. Rare earth downstream such as NdFeB materials, many Japanese rare earth enterprises are not in the earthquake zone, but the downstream of NdFeB materials such as hard disks and digital cameras may have a greater impact. It is also short-term, about a month." Sun Fan, a non-ferrous metal analyst at Jinyuan Securities, told the Morning Post reporter yesterday.
Sun Fan said that the current domestic procurement is still very "active", the traders of rare earth products are mainly in the "reluctant sale" stage, the price is not "firm", it is very fast, it can be said that "there is no price." According to reports, at present, the price of niobium alloy has soared to 430,000 to 450,000 yuan / ton, bismuth oxide rose to 330,000 yuan / ton, and strontium iron alloy rose to 2.5 million / ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, the increase is more than 50%, and the increase in ferroniobium alloy is even more than 70%.
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