In response to the Japanese earthquake, China suspended the approval of new nuclear power projects. Feng Fei, director of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at the Industrial Investment Reporting Conference held by the Shanghai Bank on the 11th: "China must develop nuclear power. We have no choice."
Feng Fei further stated that China has already clarified that by 2020, the proportion of non-fossil energy to China's energy consumption will be raised to 15%. The new energy development goal of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†is brewing. It will be non-fossil energy by 2015. The proportion increased from 8.3% at the end of 2010 to 11.4%. If the nuclear power projects under construction are put into production, 40 million kilowatts (installed capacity) can be guaranteed by the end of 2015.
Nuclear power approval materials are difficult to recover in the short term
When will the suspension of nuclear power project approval be resumed? Feng Fei’s answer is “difficult to sayâ€, but it is speculated that the new energy development target for the next five years will not recover in the short term. When talking about the development goals of nuclear energy in the next five years, he said that China’s current nuclear power project The construction scale is very large. Nearly half of the nuclear power projects built around the world are in China. “There are 27 nuclear reactors under construction. These projects under construction will be put into operation around 2015. The 40 million kilowatts are basically guaranteed. ""
"After the earthquake in Japan, the development of China's nuclear power industry is indeed a big debate, but in general, the first is to develop nuclear power, and the second is to ensure safety." He further said.
In the field of wind power, China's development goal for the next five years is 90 million kilowatts. At the end of last year, the installed capacity of wind power was 45 million kilowatts, which means that the installed capacity of wind power in China will double in the next five years.
In terms of solar power generation, especially the scale of photovoltaic power generation, by 2015, the development target will be 5 million kilowatts previously planned, and the latest revision is to 10 million kilowatts. “This means that within the next five years, compared with the current scale, the installed capacity will be Turning over 100 times, this development momentum is very fierce."
Feng Fei said that in the next five years, it will rely mainly on the development of the above-mentioned new energy industry to achieve China's 11.4% non-fossil energy ratio target.
Nuclear safety planning is preferred
"After the Fukushima nuclear accident, the suspension of approval was mainly due to nuclear safety." Feng Fei said.
Feng Fei further said that due to the rapid development of nuclear energy in China, it is difficult to ensure problems in the manufacturing, construction, operation, and nuclear safety supervision. Therefore, the suspension of nuclear power approval is mainly focused on site selection, safety supervision, and nuclear Emergency treatment and other aspects. He pointed out that China is currently intensifying the development of a nuclear safety plan, which is even ahead of the nuclear power development plan. "Nuclear safety planning is first and nuclear development planning is behind."
The first is site selection. “Coastal or inland? What was the consideration of natural disasters at the time of site selection? In the event of a nuclear accident, the isolation zone was considered insufficiently? These are some factors that reconsidered site selection.â€
The second is to strengthen nuclear safety supervision, such as nuclear safety issues that may arise in manufacturing and construction. "A nuclear power plant that I have visited this time, they are in the construction process, the ratio of cement is wrong. Then stop and study with the Nuclear Safety Bureau. The proportional density of steel bars in the reinforced concrete of the nuclear power plant is very large. It is a steel lining. The outside is a very dense steel bar. Then it is used to cut off the cement. If it is chiseled, it will not affect the steel lining inside. There are many similar nuclear safety problems."
Feng Fei believes that China's nuclear safety supervision system is stronger than Japan, because Japan's nuclear safety supervision is in the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and a group of people who advocate the development of nuclear power are still conducting nuclear safety supervision, and China's Nuclear Safety Bureau is located in Under the Ministry of Environmental Protection, it is relatively independent.
The third is the nuclear emergency. "A big problem in the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan is that the emergency problem is incorrect and not timely. After the nuclear accident in the US San Francisco, the global nuclear technology level has reached a new level. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, I Personal judgment, the global nuclear emergency level, emergency plan to a new level, often caused by the system after each major accident."
Regarding the necessity of China's development of nuclear energy, Feng Fei used a set of figures to prove: "One nuclear power unit is 1 million kilowatts, and the main model of a wind turbine is 2 megawatts (1 MW = 1000 kW) or 2.5 MW. That is to say, a nuclear power unit is equivalent to 400-500 fans; let us look at it, wind power is intermittent energy, more than 2,000 hours a year (can be used), nuclear power (can be used) more than 7,000 hours, that is to say 400-500 wind turbines should be multiplied by 3.5, that is, a nuclear power unit equals 1,500 wind turbines. In this sense, instead of fossil energy, the current large-scale economically replaceable technology, nuclear power is definitely a The solution.†Feng Fei said that China’s nuclear power accounted for more than 1% of the total power generation, and this ratio is 16% global average.
Worried about fan reliability
When it comes to the doubling of wind power in the next five years (from the current 45 million kilowatts to 90 million kilowatts in 2015), Feng Fei also raised concerns: "The development of wind power must pay attention to the reliability of wind power, and we use wind power very time. Short, some problems in the development of the industry have not been exposed, and the reliability of the wind turbine may be concentrated in the two years." (Editor's note: On February 24, the first wind farm in Qiaoxi of Zhongdian Jiuquan Wind Power Co., Ltd. appeared The cable head failure caused 598 wind turbines of 16 wind farms to be disconnected. The State Electricity Regulatory Commission considered that the accident was the most serious accident in China in recent years. On April 17, Gansu Guazhou Concord On the same day, in the Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province, Guohua Jiaxin Wind Farm also had an accident, and 644 wind turbines were off the grid; 4 On the 25th, Jiuquan Wind Power Base had another accident and thousands of wind turbines were off the grid. After investigating several wind turbine off-network accidents, the SERC believed that most wind turbines that are currently in operation do not have low voltage crossing energy. Force, easy to off-grid when the grid fails and the system voltage drops.)
"The radius of the fan blade of more than 70 meters is equivalent to the Airbus A380. The cost of hoisting once is 600,000 yuan. That is to say, the maintenance cost of the fan blade falling once is 600,000 yuan. Once a year, the whole cost will go up. Feng Fei believes that the current quality and reliability of the wind turbine industry is a relatively large problem, especially for the development of offshore wind power.
In answering the question of the difficulty of wind power enterprises accessing the national grid, Feng Fei pointed out that at present, the grid company's statement is that wind power technology is not a suitable technology for the power grid, and wind power is intermittent energy. There is a technical bottleneck in accessing the power grid, he stressed "The grid company can have some requirements for wind power companies."
Feng Fei further pointed out that the future development of wind turbine enterprises is to "build a large base and integrate into the large power grid". "We are mainly focusing on the use of large wind farms. If the reliability is good, large-capacity power generation and large-capacity units are in the industrial competition. You can gain a competitive advantage."
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