The "Risk Warning" section of the journal aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In practice, investors need to trade according to their own short-term lines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new price closing distance may be less than 2%. ☆☆ The reverse price range of new price closing distance may be greater than 2%. ☆☆☆ The period price is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: Copper: Pressured by profit-taking, yesterday's copper turmoil in LME in March fell, compared to the closing price of 2935 US dollars / ton, compared with the previous trading day fell 22 US dollars / ton, fluctuations in the 1974.5~2915 USD/ton. Yesterday, LME copper stocks fell by 450 tons to 946.75 million tons. The US consumer confidence index announced in September fell to 96.8 yesterday, which was lower than market expectations. Meanwhile, Chile announced that its August copper production was 446.467 million tons, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year. From the current and previously published copper mine output data, the output of each copper mine has increased significantly. However, these increased production volumes have not been reflected in the stock exchange warehouse. Let us be surprised that the global copper The increase in demand is far less than the increase in copper production. Domestically, due to the upcoming 10.1 holiday, according to past practice, transactions will tend to be calm in the two days before the long vacation, and the transaction volume will shrink significantly. Due to the 10.1 holiday break and 5 trading days, there is a certain uncontrollable risk. It is recommended to invest. The wet storage festival. Yesterday, the spot price rose again and reported 31100~31200 yuan/ton. Aluminium: LME's aluminum prices were affected by the increase in inventories and the decline in copper prices yesterday. The same trend of downward movement was observed. At the same time, market rumors that LME Singapore's aluminum inventories will increase by 40,000 tons in October also caused negative impact on aluminum prices. Yesterday, the domestic Shanghai aluminum stocks oscillated upward, the price was approaching the previous high, and the trading volume was also enlarged. The main contract of December contract closed at 17,020 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the recent aluminum price. It may oscillate between 16800 and 17100. The spot price of domestic aluminum changed little yesterday and was 16780~16800 yuan/ton. Ma Hongqing: Copper: The LME copper price fell sharply on Tuesday's trading, and the price began to adjust after reaching a new high of 5 months. This trend of decline has been extremely normal after the continuous rise in the price. For the past 30 years, The chart shows that the futures price will stand on this position after the 2850 launch of an upward attack. In other words, only when the current price fell below 2850 again, we can begin to consider short selling. The price of the corresponding domestic copper CU501 will be at 27,500. The drop in spot premium implies a very weak willingness to consume buying above $100. In fact, the recent increase in copper prices has not been approved by consumer buying. Reviewing the spot premium since April of this year, it has never been received above $100. Consumer buying support. It is expected that the LME copper price will be further adjusted and the 2850 will become a strong support. Investors are advised to try to buy in the vicinity of the CU501 to 27500, and take this position as a stop loss. Once it breaks, consider rallies, and wait and see. Aluminium: LME aluminum prices continued to maintain the consolidation pattern on Tuesday. We need to be cautious in the face of consecutive large increases in open interest. The fall in futures prices after reaching a recent high point will increase the possibility of further adjustments. Investors are advised to hold long positions as long as the position of the domestic Shanghai Aluminum 16800 is damaged. Daily commentary: He Haihai: Copper in the LME market rose sharply on Monday, and the intra-market copper price was as high as US$2,960/tonne, compared with the closing price of US$2,953/tonne. Domestic stocks fell sharply last week, while spot prices continued to rise after stabilizing at more than 30,200, but the willingness to buy upwards was not strong. At present, the sensitivity of the base metal market to price bullish news has gradually increased, and the Chilean state-owned copper company Codelco Norte The strike threatened, and the Southern Peruvian Copper Company (SPCC) was dissatisfied with the increase in costs. Earlier this month, its workers went on strike and warned that it would strike again, and the company's Asarco also has disputes. The world's largest and second largest platinum production After the 48-hour strike notice from the South African National Mining Union (NUM) issued by NUMloAmericanPlatinum (Angloplat) and ImpalaPlatinum (Implats) due to wage disputes, the supply issue became the focus of investors. These two companies are also the main producers of nickel. In August, new home sales in the United States grew by 9.4%, more than analysts expected, and a month-to-month increase in recent four years, which lifted copper futures. Last week's position report of cftc saw that the fund continued to increase its long position. There is no sign of the end of the uptick, and the December position of Comex continues to increase substantially, which should cause concern. Technically, after the copper broke through the key technical level of 2,860 U.S. dollars, after undergoing a short-term adjustment, it rose again. The technical shape is intact. The copper price is expected to challenge the high level above 3,000 U.S. dollars, which to a certain extent also stimulated the buying momentum. Copper prices are expected to continue to improve. Operational recommendations: wait and see overseas express delivery before the holiday: LME market reports: LME copper prices closed lower on Tuesday, affected by the profit settlement, March copper reported $ 2936 / ton, traders said that as of the end of Monday, the spot price of LME basis Asian spot copper premiums remained high, and traders have expected Chile's Codelco to raise its copper premium level next year. The traditional off-season spending season in the northern hemisphere is nearing the end of the summer, and the active fourth quarter is coming. Regional traders said that the buying demand of end-users is increasing. A Tokyo-based trader stated that “in the summer, we received a lot of quotations, and now we receive a lot of inquiries.†Purchases from China began to increase, making the regional supply relatively tight. Three Japanese traders who declined to be named said that Chile’s Codelco is expected to increase its copper CIF quotation for 2005 to about US$100/ton. “There are also rumors that Codelco will quote copper premiums at US$120-130/tonne, CIF, Japan, but this argument is hardly convincing.†Codelco will price its 2004 copper premium CIF for Japan to 70 USD/ton, the copper premium CIF price for Korea and China Taiwan is US$65/tonne. The company’s annual copper premium is often seen as the benchmark for global copper premiums. In Japan, CIF quotation for copper premium water was quoted at US$100-105/ton, and three weeks ago it was US$80-100/ton. The copper premium price is roughly flat at 120 US dollars/ton, CIF, Shanghai, China. Copper premium CIF quotes in the Southeast Asian market remained at around US$110-120/t. The CIF quotation of Tongshengshui in Taiwan was quoted at US$100-110/ton, which was reported at US$100/ton a week ago. COMEX copper market report: COMEX copper futures ended modestly lower on Tuesday, traders said that it is expected that the December copper futures will be more resistant at 138-139 cents, and will also pay close attention to the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark for three months. Performance at 3,000 USD. December copper fell 0.85 cents to close at 136.95 cents. Analysts believe that demand from the United States domestically and in China is increasing, while both technical and hedge fund buying support the price of copper futures.