Jianxun Information (09.17): Copper and aluminum magazine "risk warning" column, aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, for investors to refer to the position when handling positions, the actual operation Investors in China also need to take concrete measures based on their own short-term trading strategy and the differences in the volatility of each product. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-term closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆☆ The period price is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: Copper: Yesterday, LME copper in March was driven by buying from the Far East, showing a significant upward trend, compared to a closing price of US$2820.5/ton, up by US$53/ton from the previous trading day. The range is from 2829 to 2769.5 USD/ton. LME copper stocks fell by 800 tons to 102,850 tons yesterday. There are market rumors that the LME market will increase 2-3 million tons of copper stocks in the short term. Judging from the current trend of copper prices, after the copper price broke through the previous resistance of 2,800 US dollars, the short-term resistance faced at 2847 US dollars. Due to market rumors that China has increased the tax evasion tax investigation on scrap imports, the market expects tight supply of spot copper. The phenomenon of buying spot copper in the Shanghai spot market yesterday led to a sharp rise in futures prices. The main contract ended in December. At RMB 26,520/t, it was RMB 480/t higher than the previous day. Yesterday the spot price was 28950~29050 yuan/ton, and the premium was 600~700 yuan/ton. Aluminium: LME March aluminum in early trading yesterday was affected by the increase in copper prices. It experienced a certain degree of overshoot. However, it was blocked in the first-line US$1720 and closed at US$171.15 per ton. Shanghai Alcoa was adjusted domestically yesterday with trading volume and open interest. There was a clear decline, the main contract of December contract closed at 16,230 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day fell 40 yuan / ton, the December contract in the 26400 line more resistance. The spot price of domestic aluminum rose slightly yesterday to 16100 to 16150 yuan/ton. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price rose sharply in the trading on Thursday from the purchase of the Far East and the decline of the US dollar. The price is approaching the key position of 2830. However, before breaking this critical level, the price of the LME copper may need to be tested at the integer mark of 2800. At present, the disadvantage of Shanghai copper for short sellers is that the premium between months and months reaches 1,000 yuan/ton, which means that short-selling is particularly needed for timing. The speculative control of inventory will undoubtedly increase the time for copper prices to operate at high levels, but it is certain that the longer the time, the greater the room for decline. Shanghai Copper CU412 is expected to test the pressure level of 26800 on Friday, with support at 26,500. LME aluminum prices maintained a strong consolidation pattern during Thursday's trading. After a continuous decline in inventory, aluminum prices reached a subtle level. The control of inventories by international speculators indicates that there will be some changes in future market prices. How much need to be observed, and the 1600/1650 cost is an indisputable fact. For domestic aluminum prices, it will be 15800/16200. As far as the K-line pattern is concerned, the attempt to establish a long position in domestic aluminum prices is valuable. Investors are advised to establish a certain amount of bullish positions around 16200 with a stop loss of 15780. Daily commentary: He Haihai: On Wednesday, the United States announced a better growth in industrial production, and the US dollar strengthened. However, the copper price has not changed much, and it is still in the trend of a range oscillation. The transaction volume of London Copper was 49,000 lots. The change in positions did not change much, but it was still 160,000 lots. The three-month copper closed at 2,769 U.S. dollars, up by 3 U.S. dollars from the previous trading day. The settlement of domestic copper was worthy of attention yesterday. In September, it was said that there were a lot of arrivals, but yesterday's delivery volume was only 6,000 tons, confirming the spot price. The shortage of facts. Today should be the reason for this, which has contributed to the increase in prices. On Wednesday, the United States announced that industrial production rose by 0.1% in August, capacity utilization rate rose to 77.3% from 77.1% in the previous month, oil inventories fell, but oil prices fell, which made the dollar stronger, copper prices fell from the intraday high, but still In the range of oscillation. Copper and aluminum prices have still not shaken off within a narrow range. From Wednesday's performance, the price impact is still short-term uncertainties and technical orders. There are two key points in the outlook for the market. One is the growth of the global economy and the manufacturing industry. Changes in the economic conditions in the future will continue to be the main guiding factors in determining metal price changes. The second is the increase in the supply of fundamentals, which is reflected in inventory changes. The existence of a large number of implicit stocks is always a hidden danger of price increases. The prominent feature of the Shanghai copper market is that the spot seems to be tight. Wednesday is the later trading day of the September contract. The near-term weaker situation of Shanghai copper caused by the spot contract is even more obvious. 0409 soared to the spot high of 29360 yuan / ton, 0409 and 0412 contract spreads to 3320 yuan / ton, Huatong spot closing also rose to 29,260 yuan / ton. From a technical point of view, Lun Copper does show its lack of momentum. In the last week's position report, the first vacancy of the fund indicated that it was bearish on the mid to long-term of the market. Operational recommendations: Moderate short-selling for overseas express delivery: LME market report: London September 16 news: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals mostly closed on Thursday, traders and analysts said, benefiting from funds and Technical buy-in. One LME trader said: “Some short-coverages appeared on the floor earlier, and then the fund also entered the market to take over.†Dealers said that the market has been limited to narrow range fluctuations in the previous five trading days, but Under the joint push of the market, copper futures rose above the resistance level of approximately 2,800/05 US dollars per ton. Another trader pointed out that the volume of futures copper reached 4,300, more than LME copper stocks. Three-month copper rose 1.95% or At $54, it closed at $2,823 per ton. Man Financial analyst, Mel, said: "If copper stays above $2,800 for two consecutive trading days, it is expected to see a new trading range of 2,800 to 3,000. Otherwise, it will return to 2,700. /720 to 2,800 near the interval. "The second trader said:" Analysts are talking about copper volume expansion, but I personally do not see large funds holding large long positions. Three-month aluminum rose $5 to 1,713. Mel said: "Aluminium Ken, news about alumina shipments and continued declines in aluminum stocks all form a support. “The Jamaican official said on Thursday that the two ports used to export alumina have been damaged by Hurricane Ivan (Ivan). Not available for two months. LME aluminum stocks decreased by 1,125 tons on Thursday to 701,700 tons. Three-month nickel closed at $150 to 13,000; three-month nickel rose from $135 to 8,985. Three-month period Lead rose 7 US dollars to 888. Three-month zinc fell from 990 US dollars to 988. COMEX copper market report: New York September 16 news: traders said that the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) copper rose on Thursday to nearly Higher in one month, the strong market in London and China prompted the fund to cover short positions and add new long positions. Traders said that the fund buying promoted COMEX copper to rise above US$1.30 per pound, but the trading volume was scarce. December copper closed higher since August 17 and closed at $1.3015 per pound, up 3.00 cents. Spot September contract rose 3.05 cents to close at $1.2980. Other monthly contract settlements rose 1.60. US cents to 3.00 cents. COMEX copper forecast volume of 13,000, Wednesday 5,17 2 hands.