China's PVC is mainly produced by means of coal chemical industry. The drop in crude oil price will not have a direct impact on the price of calcium carbide process PVC. However, the time nodes of PVC and crude oil decline last year are highly consistent, and there seems to be some correlation. Through analysis, we found that during the five years from May 26, 2009 to June 30, 2014, the price of crude oil and The correlation between PVC prices is -0.1837. From a statistical point of view, there is basically no correlation. However, from July 2014 to now, the correlation between crude oil and PVC is as high as 0.9635. When crude oil is operated in high-priced areas, the price rise and fall will not change the cost of ethylene method far higher than the current status of calcium carbide method, so the rise and fall of crude oil price has little effect on PVC.
PVC has limited space to fall
The sharp drop in crude oil prices has led to a sharp drop in crude oil export earnings, and oil-producing countries with relatively simple economic structures have been affected by this. At present, OPEC's crude oil output is about 30 million barrels per day, accounting for about one-third of global production. The world's largest oil producer Saudi Arabia's crude oil export revenue accounts for more than 40% of GDP; Russia's crude oil production is 10 million barrels / Around day, it accounts for about 1/9 of global production. The fall in crude oil will have a direct impact on OPEC and Russia's economy. We believe that it is difficult for crude oil exporters represented by Saudi Arabia and Russia to endure low oil prices for a long time. It is only a matter of time before oil producers reduce production and demand imbalance by reducing production. Based on this judgment, we believe that the downside of crude oil prices is limited, and it is a high probability event to base the WTI crude oil at around $50/barrel.
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