Undoubtedly, this is a historic meeting of the first US dollar, which is the most popular dinner in the world in 2018.
According to foreign media reports, the dinner on December 1st ended in applause. Very successful, this is also the unanimous tone of the two sides. The global stock market on Monday was fully affirmed by the real increase.
At one time, the mountains were running out of water, and the eyes were bright and clear. It’s really a climax, it’s thrilling.
As Bullpiano has previously commented, this trade war is more dramatic than drama and more roller coaster than roller coaster. For the negotiating team of both sides, the biggest test may not be the time difference and strategy, but must have a good heart.
The next step is the specific negotiation between the two teams, which is undoubtedly very crucial. For the people who eat melons, we must treat them more normally. Because this is a trade war, but it is a public opinion war and psychological war.
Five rough judgments:
Judging one, there may be positive progress, but it will not be smooth.
With this strong promotion at the highest level, the Sino-US economic and trade team will undoubtedly speed up consultations and strive to reach an early agreement. However, from the game of the past half year, if there is no integrity, if you continue to ask for the price, you will not rule out new twists and turns.
After all, according to the information disclosed, if the two parties fail to reach an agreement within 90 days, the US is likely to repeat itself, raising the 10% tariff to 25%. This means that the war will reignite.
Therefore, the two sides will continue to be wits. For China, we must strive for the best results, but we must still make the worst plans. Of course, as the Xinhua News Agency pointed out, as long as there is sincerity, China and the United States will not solve the problem.
Judgment 2, there must be contradictions and struggles, but cooperation is even more intrinsic.
This dinner meeting, also brought a word of fire: fentanyl.
This is a potent analgesic, but it has become a serious social problem in the United States.
Therefore, after the talks, the White House’s statement contained such a sentence: It is very important that the Chinese leaders agreed to designate fentanyl as a regulated substance with an excellent humanitarian attitude, which means to the United States. Those who sell fentanyl will be subject to the most severe penalties imposed by Chinese law.
The joy of joy is beyond words. This shows what?
The most fundamental point is that China and the United States still need to cooperate more and not cooperate. Many problems can not be solved, and ultimately affect the well-being of Americans. Americans are becoming more aware of this.
Judgment three, China wants to buy and buy, but the United States must also make more concessions.
The United States has not only launched a trade war against a country. Why is China and the United States the most watched, fiercest, and most difficult to win?
Volume is the key. After all, China is the second largest economy in the world. There is no huge market, complete industrial chain, convenient infrastructure and business environment that no country wants to lose. This is also our greatest confidence in dealing with trade wars.
The most direct purpose of the Americans to launch a trade war is to sell more to China. It is also an indisputable fact that China has a huge surplus with the United States.
Market economy, price quality is very important. If American goods are really good, it is not a bad thing to import more. Or, in other words, this will not only help the bilateral trade balance, but also help meet the growing needs of the Chinese people for a better life and promote high-quality economic development, and help the formation of domestic competitive markets.
Of course, negotiation is the art of compromise. The United States must also make concessions. If it is not good, it will not sell, and it will also set various obstacles for Chinese enterprises. If only one party compromises, no real agreement will be reached, because such an agreement is often not sustainable.
Judging four, China is under pressure, but the pressure in the United States is not small.
Frankly speaking, this unprecedented trade war will definitely put pressure on China. After all, the trade war has suffered both losses, there will be no real winners, and it has indeed had a negative impact on some Chinese companies and industries.
But we must also see that the pressure in the United States is not small.
Recently, the US stock market has fluctuated violently, although the White House has determined that this is a good thing for the Fed. However, in the eyes of most American economists, the Sino-US trade war has become more and more fierce, which has seriously affected the confidence of US investors. If this is done, The US economy will certainly suffer heavy losses.
Therefore, rationally, this time the two sides have taken a step back and reached important consensus. As far as the United States is concerned, strong internal pressure is also an important reason. After all, the White House has publicly made the stock market rise an important achievement. Chinese people never think so.
Judging five, pressure is more power, and it is not a bad thing for China.
The next negotiations do not rule out new sparks, even setbacks and crises. But the crisis has always been dangerous.
In that case, it is still difficult to touch the interests than to touch the soul. From the most optimistic point of view, there is no pressure to breathe, and there is no motivation for the strong men to break their wrists. Implementing larger-scale reforms and opening up is our best gift for the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up, and it is our biggest magic weapon to cope with the current challenges.
In fact, while the Sino-US trade war is escalating, China has been advancing the issue of openness in an orderly manner. Four times a year to actively reduce tariffs, the first Shanghai Jinbo Fair gathered thousands of businesses, are evidence. According to the World Bank's latest Business Environment Report, China's ranking has risen 32 places from the previous year. China’s progress is really not self-proclaimed.
Without pressure, there is no motivation. Let the market really play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, so that the reform and opening up will bring more solid sense of gain to the people. Concentric and up-and-coming, what is the fear of China?
Finally, let me say one more sentence:
This is a smart fight, and both sides see a move. For the results, we must maintain rationality; for twists and turns, we must be more normal. This is a mature big country mentality. In this world, he is strong by him, and the breeze is on the hills. He is horizontally crossed by him, and the moon shines on the river.
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