Traders said that from global business conditions, there have been many negative expectations in the global steel market recently. For example, when senior executives of the OECD Steel Committee held a meeting in Paris, they said that the strong growth of the global economy has driven the steel industry's amazing performance for several years, but at present the industry is already facing the risk of overcapacity. Among them, China's steel production and export surge will have a huge impact on the world. Because there was no export in mainland China two or three years ago, steel products in the Chinese mainland are now emerging in large numbers in the international market, and the oversupply of the global steel market is inevitable. Mainland economic analysts also believe that the rise in steel prices in mainland China is expected to end in 2007. The main reason is that the steel production capacity in mainland China has grown significantly in the past three years and will be released in large quantities in 2007. The annual increase in steel production is estimated to be about 500 million metric tons, and the supply pressure will be high. By then, steel prices may be expected to decline.
Sinosteel experts pointed out that the analysis of the international steel market is basically based on a global perspective. If we look at the average price, analysts may expect the situation, but steel prices are becoming more and more fragmented. In the past two years, high and low grade steel products have emerged. The trend has been divided and the overall nature of the judgment may be distorted in a regional market. China Steel indicated that the World Iron and Steel Institute IISI, World Steel Dynamics WSD and OECD and other agencies have all over the past five years issued oversupply and even steel price warnings to the market. However, these warnings did not come true in Asia.
This situation shows that the fundamental changes in the structure of the international steel market over the past five years have led to a boom or boom in prices that are no longer predictable by traditional thinking. In other words, new patterns have emerged in the technical analysis of the steel industry. A person in charge of a listed company agrees with this view. He said that in the steel industry for more than 30 years, he has never seen a market performance that can stand upright for five years. If you use traditional thinking, you can only earn a bid-ask spread. Miss this big wave of long boom.
China Steel stated that the global steel market's exports and demand have grown rapidly for five consecutive years. This year, global crude steel production has increased by 90 million metric tons or so to 1.22 billion metric tons. The outlook for the steel market in 2007 is still clear, and China Steelâ€™s steel market for next year Performance is not pessimistic.
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