LME Copper and Aluminium Market Commentary Copper Market Commentary Fund and Bulls pushed the copper price above the neckline this week, initiating a one-month copper price to a high of $2955. The steady decline in inventory has once again boosted the premium to $90. The market understands that China's tight spot supply is re-supporting the strong prices at that time. As prices have once again strengthened, the focus of the market is increasingly concentrated on supporting factors. The deadlocked Asarco negotiations, for example, when the price is lower than the current 200 US dollars In the beginning, it became a supportive factor, and now it is getting more and more attention. Similarly, the leader of the COELCO company’s trade union said that the negotiation of new labor contracts did not take positive progress yesterday, which may trigger a strike in early October. However, only an extended strike may disrupt production. Japan's copper cable shipments have increased by 10.1% from a year ago. The US spot premium has stabilized at 7-8 cents per pound. Although spot trading is at a low level, especially the hurricane factor is now over, at least at present. China’s strong domestic demand has seen spot premiums rise to $100/110. Imports in August increased by nearly 30,000 tons from July and are expected to increase further in the coming months. The chart has clearly improved because it has attracted speculation and For technical trading activities, people must remember that while the market is still supporting, the price increase is due to technical factors and is driven by funds. If the upward power of prices fails, prices may fall again sharply. Manufacturers’ positive short-selling short-selling has re-emerged. We expect that if the price rises further, the short-term sell-off will increase in view of the current wide-range increase. The rising energy currently looks good, and the buyers are still going forward and are bullish. Under the circumstances, bears can easily be trapped, but caution should also be taken. Technical Analysis The three-month copper futures of LME turned sharply upwards, and the price broke through the current trading range and form. The rise in price exceeding 2900 should expand to the forward high point of 3050/60, and is at the possibility of breaking this high point. Therefore, as discussed below, any re-emergence retracement before the rising price energy exhaustion is regarded as an amendment only and is not sustainable. The expected good support will be now 2870/80, then 2825/ 35 will limit the new price retracement, only to fall below the 2700 area far below, will be considered at present to undermine the potential bullish tone, re-think that an important cyclical top has been formed. Extensive analysis believes that the current price The stronger is the end of the bullish move from 1335 (October 2002 low) on the monthly chart, but the upward trend does not seem to be over, so the price will be at least the second test high 3050/60 in the next few weeks. In fact, the initial breakthrough exceeded historical resistance. It was not surprising that it appeared at 3250 in early 1989, because the rise of rising energy was formed in the past quarter. In discussion, only a re-break below 2700 will cause a bullish point of view to abortion, and believe that an important top has already been formed. This support level will eventually fall. Once the current rise is completed, the price target will point to 2450 and below - however, The current expectation is that the weak trend will be supported by tolerance. Technical Strategy: Falling or falling immediately below 2900 will provide buying opportunities, look for a price test of 3050/60 and the next step may be close to 3250 chances of protection below 2825. After the aluminum market commented on the weak trend last week, the fund was Starting last week to enter the market, the amount previously bought (which may reach 750,000 tons) triggered the price to rise above $1800, which is the first time since April. The premium has seen a premium, although it is not clear to what extent the price will go The bullish view appeared at a market seminar held in Oslo and stimulated many people's imaginations. Although the rise in LME inventories suddenly rose by more than 10,000 tons, these metals were delivered to Singapore. Inventories have been falling for a few weeks in a row. The market seems to be very reluctant to acknowledge the willingness to decline in LME inventory. The overall assumption is that tens of thousands of tons of metal are in a recessive state at any time and the current delivery It may be considered evidence of this situation, but we are not surprised at this, the trend of declining stocks will still be restored. Alcoa opposes newer In the case of Becancour, whose labor disputes have continued for a long time, it seems that there will not be any further negotiations in the near future. The issue of labor and capital has threatened Ormet, and the reorganization plan of the bankrupt companies there has been opposed by the trade unions. The shortage of alumina and the increase in power costs forced China’s eight small-scale smelters to close in July and August. Further closures are still expected before the end of the year. German aluminum industry reportedly produced flat this year. It is expected that exports will rise. Norsk Hydro expects that the growth rate in the Western market will reach 4.4% in 2004-2007, and the demand for cars is particularly strong. At the same time, people are somewhat surprised that why aluminum prices will slowly rise in the current range of $1650/1700. There has been great consumer interest, and it's interesting whether their buying target will rise with price. The market may have some reservations, depending on the rate of price increase, but there is no doubt that bulls have targeted the April high of $1850. Technical analysis LME Three-month aluminum short-term trend is clearly bullish, and the price acceleration to its The previous retracement high of 1770 is now moving directly toward the April high of 1845/50. At the same time, the market may come to a standstill in the morning (digestion of sharp rises, correction of overbought technical conditions), and the price falls Space is therefore relatively limited. Technical research indicates that the re-emergence of the weak trend can now only be considered as a correction, only breaking below the far below $1,700 will undermine the potential positive state. Otherwise, the buying will appear in 1770/80 Any break below the 1800 level is considered to be short-lived, at least for now. A sell-off in the vicinity of 1840/50 is likely to be, at least, to suppress price rises in a few days, and studies have shown that upward breakthroughs have also been made. The price is expected to expand in the next month up to 1920/30, closer to the end of 2000, and then re-emergence pressure. Look down, as discussed above, the usual demand buying Price limit downside risk, just below the 1700 price, a familiar early top will appear. The recent consolidation around 1700 appears to be a period of energy re-accumulation, which has improved the medium to long-term technical aspects. The price will look tired after approaching 2,000 U.S. dollars, but closer to the price increase now looks It can be expanded to 2200 if there is enough time to develop. Technical Strategy: Utilize the weakness of recent price to re-enter the market from the long direction, buy back when the price retreats to 1780, if possible over 1750, safety protection below 1700 U.S. dollars