If the LME copper price during the holidays shows a tendency to decline first, LME aluminum prices continue to strengthen in the mid-September rally. LME March aluminum achieved a breakthrough of 1850 U.S. dollars per ton for major resistance, with no reduction in inventory. It was highlighted during the two trading days of September 30 and October 6. · The increase in premiums and discounts, and the increase in positions From the perspective of market performance other than price, the main changes are reflected in premiums and discounts and positions. (1) Continuation of squeezed warehouses and spot water expansion In mid-September, LME aluminum market appeared in a crowded warehouse, spotting converted from premium to premium in the March period, and extended the situation in the late September to expand, with a pause. September 29. LME spot aluminum had a premium of $4/ton for the March period. However, on September 30, spot premiums soared to $18/ton, far beyond the level in mid-to-late September. From October 1st to 5th, the premiums for the spot-to-March contract were relatively stable. October 6 is the October announcement date. LME Aluminum bought 20,837 contracts (set at 1080 in 1800 and 1850 positions), which is much higher than the 9192 that sold options. Rising kinetic energy, the spot premium was magnified to US$15.5/t. Time September 29th September 30th October 1st October 4th October 5th October 6th spot premium ($/t) 4 18 13 12 11 15.5 (2) Increase in positions Over the past week, LME Aluminum The number of positions increased by about 20,000 lots, from less than 420,000 to 438,000. Although there was a certain gap between the 455,000 hands in November 2003 and the 476,000 hands in April 2004, it was already at a relatively high level. . Moreover, from the changes in contract positions at different time periods, the positions of forward contracts (from January to the month of the month of 2005) decreased from 167,000 hands to 145,000 hands, implying that the long-term manufacturers' forward selling was not obvious. To a certain extent, it created greater room for price increases. · Inhibition of increased stocks is weak Before the holiday season, it was reported that the rise in liquidity will attract aluminum ingots into LME's Korean warehouses. From October 30th to October 6th, LME aluminum stocks remained between 68-690,000 tons. , However, from the perspective of price performance, even if the stocks increase, they have not reached the speculative buying enthusiasm. On September 30, October 4 and 5, LME aluminum inventories increased by 6,150, 1950 and 4,425 tons, respectively, but at least there was no apparent inhibitory effect on the aluminum market on September 30. Then LME copper stocks also increased by 8,350 tons on the 4th, plus speculative long positions for profit-taking, which may be one of the main reasons for price adjustments over the past few days. (Note that LME aluminum positions were held on these two dates. Continued to increase). Therefore, the decline in inventory, which has been the LME aluminum price increase momentum, has not been taken seriously by the current market, or the effect of inventory on aluminum prices is not as strong as it seems. · Power is not from the fundamentals. From the perspective of the basic concerns, it does not seem to be enough to support such an increase in aluminum prices, or that the metal price cycle may lag behind the economic cycle. The first data showed that the pace of global economic growth and manufacturing expansion continued to slow. US factory orders fell by 0.1% in August (expected to rise by 0.1%); ISM index dropped from 59 in August to 58.5, of which new orders index fell At 3.1 percentage points, the non-manufacturing index dropped from 58.2 to 56.7; the euro area and Japan's PMI index fell to 53.1 and 53.6 from 53.9 and 54.9 respectively in August. Secondly, oil prices hit record highs. On October 6, NYMEX crude oil contract price for November delivery reached 51.48 US dollars/barrel. In the long run, rising oil prices will hurt various aspects of production and consumption, including metal consumption and prices. In addition, the exchange rate has not been matched. The G7 meeting's attention to rising oil prices and optimistic expectations for the global economy have kept the dollar steady and slightly stronger. · The price space depends on the continuity of the purchase of funds to promote the direct strength of aluminum prices is the fund to buy, why speculative funds to buy such a radical aluminum it? It may be explained from other aspects. Crude oil and energy prices have risen, the world is facing inflationary pressure, and the stock market has been relatively depressed, so metal has become one of the goals of the fund's investment. However, the price increase or the purchase of funds is different from last year's. The basic support for price is getting weaker and weaker. Therefore, the problem turns into the continuity of the buying of funds, and the power to restrain the price increase will still come from the spot market. When consumers are reluctant to buy at high prices and producers actively sell, it may be that the upward momentum is severely weakened. When the resistance of $1850/ton was broken, the room for upward movement in LME aluminum prices was once again widened, and aluminum prices would be challenged to cyclical highs. The primary resistance would be 1880/90. In the short term, it may be sorted above 1800 and supported at 1800. /20. Whether it is the rise or adjustment of Lon Aluminum, its breakthrough on the resistance level has strengthened the conditions for the Shanghai aluminum market to stimulate the market. It is likely that Shanghai Aluminum will follow the rising trend after the holiday. Before the holiday, the Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong turmoil in the confusion. Although producers are looking for prices, consumers are extremely cautious and there is also a lack of funds to promote the futures market. The rise in LME aluminum prices first encouraged the confidence of investors in the Shanghai aluminum market. It is expected that there will be speculative funds entering the market after the holiday season; the psychological defense of the consumer market in the spot market will also be broken. However, given that the domestic market is still in excess, relative prices will remain at a relatively low level.