Environmental protection subject checks and balances steel prices

Moderator: The stock market has been weak, and the correlation between the trend and the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to decline. When do you think this link will stabilize?

Chen Bingkun: I haven’t seen any signs that the market is hitting a bottom. My fundamental analysis and system signals all point to a downward trend. I don’t like to guess—whether it’s analysis or trading, I prefer to make predictions based on trends and set up risk control plans accordingly. So, we’ll just have to wait for the correlation to align.

Moderator: You previously mentioned that 60-minute wave trading is more suitable for the current market. Has the recent stock index performance continued with the band trading strategy?

Chen Bingkun: Yes, the recent stock index strategy still follows the 60-minute wave approach. In a daily downtrend, we only look for short-selling opportunities in the 60-minute timeframe. As long as we can overcome our subjective biases, this style of trading allows trend traders to stay steady and consistent.

Netizen: Hello Mr. Chen, if the government increases macroeconomic control efforts in the second half of the year, including rural transformation and urbanization planning, would this be beneficial for steel price trends?

Chen Bingkun: Any policy introduced is likely to be positive. After all, there hasn’t been much of a rise in steel prices this year. We’ll just have to wait for the news or official announcements.

Netizen: From the perspective of steel inventory, since the end of March, steel stocks have fallen for 15 consecutive weeks, dropping from 22.51 million tons in March to 16.91 million tons this week—a 25% drop. Rebar inventory also fell from 10.8 million tons to 7.14 million tons. Can this data affect coke prices?

Chen Bingkun: This data alone isn’t enough to turn around the coke market. The correlation between these two factors isn’t very strong.

Netizen: Teacher, since last week, there were some trend trading opportunities, but in the past few days, I haven’t seen you suggest any. Are there any opportunities coming up soon?

Chen Bingkun: Let’s see if rebar can break through the short-term resistance level of 3610 tomorrow. If the breakout is confirmed and stable, I will update the trading plan immediately.

Netizen: I asked a simple question—what’s the relationship between thread inventory and coke? Common sense suggests they are closely linked. Is the heavy warehouse about to empty out, or is coke coal being lightened?

Chen Bingkun: Every trading day, I post daily pressure levels on Hexun Weibo. If the price is too low, we short the pressure level and take profits. If the price breaks above the daily resistance, we close all positions, wait for the trend to reverse, or wait for a rebound before entering a short position.

Netizen: China’s new round of urbanization planning is expected to be announced this year. Will this impact the trend of steel products?

Chen Bingkun: Definitely, urbanization is a key focus of the 12th Five-Year Plan. There are many aspects related to steel demand, such as the need for angle steel in power grid upgrades. I’m also keeping an eye on it, but there’s no specific timeline yet.

Netizen: Can we continue to short coke and coking coal? Short-term psychological pressure is high. Is the market bottoming out?

Chen Bingkun: As long as the risk-reward ratio is acceptable, it’s worth considering. It’s just a matter of psychological pressure. This is a test of objective judgment and execution. Overcoming subjective emotions is key to continuing the short trade. Psychological stress is one of the biggest enemies of investors. Understanding life and learning from others can help. Read biographies of successful people in finance and extract the best lessons. There are many valuable insights in those books.

Moderator: Thank you, Mr. Chen, for your insightful answers and for interacting with the netizens. This interview is now over!

Chen Bingkun: Thank you, host, thank you! See you next time for more exchanges!