The "Risk Warning" section of the journal aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In practice, investors need to trade according to their own short-term lines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The period price is the reverse of the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: Copper prices in LME March have risen sharply this week, and prices have hit new highs. It hit a new high in 15 years on Friday and closed at 3,140 U.S. dollars per ton compared to last Friday. It has increased by US$130.5/ton with fluctuations ranging from US$3,159 to US$2,955 per ton, and the weekly line is the long Yang line with lead wires. Driven by the price of copper, LME March aluminum also showed a trend of upward shock, compared to the final income of 1877.5 US dollars / ton, compared with last Friday rose 57 US dollars / ton, fluctuations in the range of 1882 ~ 1806 US dollars / ton, the weekly line is the Changyang line. LME copper stocks showed a declining trend, with an ending inventory of 92,000 tons. LME aluminum stocks also continued to show a declining trend this week, with 680,575 tons of stocks on weekends. This week's strong rise in LME copper price is closely related to the market's expected tight copper supply. At the beginning of this week, during the long holiday period in China, LME copper prices fluctated within a narrow range of around 3,000 US dollars in the absence of Chinese buying in the near future. Two days before the opening, copper prices rose sharply after the strike threatened by the copper mines in Chile. After the domestic market opened on Friday, copper prices rose sharply with short covering and speculative long positions. All forward contracts were closed. At daily limit. On Friday night, due to the unfavorable economic data released by the United States, the U.S. dollar depreciated sharply and the strike of the management of the Chilean state-owned copper company continued. Copper prices hit a record high for the past 15 years. Spot/three-month copper discounts. Further expanded to 160 US dollars / ton, at the beginning of the year was more than 200 US dollars / ton, the recent spot discount may further expand. Next week's market forecast: From the current trend of copper prices, the copper price has experienced a long period of high-level volatility, is currently in the main ascendant stage after the breakthrough, at the same time due to the previous domestic relative LME copper price was seriously lower than normal standards, attracting A large number of cross-market arbitrage interventions, but the early market rumors of LME market squashing behavior, you can guess, a large number of short positions in this squeeze is a cross-market arbitrage, the domestic wave exceeds the rise in LME gains The market is undoubtedly a cross-market arbitrage in which fueling, the temporary market will not end. Ma Hongqing: Copper: LME copper prices rose sharply in Friday's trade on the news of Chile's CODELCO’s copper mine strike and the sharp drop in the US dollar. The futures price hit a new high in 15 years. In addition to experiencing a sharp signal on the current technical indicators, After the rise, the index has become overbought, but there is no sign of peaking. In view of the kinetic energy index that reflects the increase in the price of the period, there is still the possibility that the price of the futures will continue to record new heights. From the fact that the consolidation zone of 2500/2850 was broken, the target price of copper will reach the 3200 line. Shanghai CU CU501 is expected to hit the daily limit again on Monday. The pressure on the 30500 front line will be greater, and 29800/30000 will become the support level in the short term. Investors are advised to consider gradually clearing long positions. Aluminium: LME aluminum prices hit new highs during the year on Friday, strong spot fundamentals pushed up the price of the period, and kinetic indicators showed that aluminum prices will further increase, and faced a large expansion of the LME market since mid-September, The current market expansion cost has reached a level above 1780, and 1880 apparently can not be considered to have achieved a later victory for the fund holding a large number of long positions, and a large amount of Masukura during the National Day holiday did not break the price from the 1850. The key position, which is quite passive for the bears. The technical momentum indicator indicates that aluminum futures still have the possibility of further innovation. Therefore, we can further establish the long position with the 1820/1830 range as the stop loss. The corresponding domestic aluminum price will be the 17100/17200 range. It is expected that Shanghai Al AL501 will test the pressure level of 17800 on Monday and the further pressure lies at 18,000. Support level is 17500. Investors are advised to establish long positions again on the 17500 line. Daily commentary: He Haihai: The breakthrough of the entire copper market during the “11th†period occurred in the evening trading on the 6th of October. The price re-emerged on the frontline of the important US$3,000 and continued to rise on the following trading day. The momentum broke through the high of 3057 US dollars in early 2004. After the Shanghai copper price opened slightly higher today, the price of the copper rose steadily and some contracts reached the daily limit price. Spot copper prices in the Shanghai market have reached the level of 31820-31950 yuan/ton. From the standpoint of price increases during the “11th†period, the overall metal market has a certain degree of synchronicity. From this perspective, it is very likely that the international crude oil prices have continued to soar, reviving the market’s forecast for inflation and commodity prices. Adjustments. Of course, the good situation of the fundamentals of the copper market itself continues to serve as a bullish effect. From the current price point of view, the previous high point of Powei and the historical high point of the Sumitomo event close to the real show of the strong momentum of copper prices, but the room for growth has been difficult to predict. From the perspective of comex's position, the room for growth should still be substantial, although the current price is already quite high, but at such prices, comex is almost crazy expansion, it is impossible to merely technically bullish positions, It seems that oil prices will not fall in a short period of time. This is another major support factor for this purchase. Operational advice: wait and see overseas express delivery: LME market report: London October 8 news: boosted by buying funds, the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal futures prices rose on Friday, causing further short covering, three benchmarks Copper closed at 3,145 U.S. dollars per tonne, a 15-year high. The lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data in September showed that U.S. employment fell to a lower level, which in turn will lead to a drop in demand for basic metals. However, some analysts also said that the decline in U.S. employment data led to a shift in investment in funds, and that the suppression of the U.S. dollar against the euro fell sharply, providing some support for a higher copper futures period. In addition, analysts pointed out that the recent general increase in the base metal futures price may also lead to downward revision of the price, due to weak fundamentals, zinc is facing the risk of falling. In addition to a large number of fund purchases, the threat of strikes is also the driving force behind the rise in copper prices. It is expected that the strike of the management of the Chilean state-owned copper company (Corporacion Nacional del Cobre) will continue. Spot/three-month copper premiums further expanded to US$160/ton. The strong copper futures also boosted the growth of other base metals, with a large increase in aluminum and nickel futures. The benchmark three-month aluminum futures endured a new high of US$1882.5/tonne late in the session, closing at US$1880/ton, and the expected resistance range is US$1,900-1,925/ton. The benchmark three-month nickel high of 17,050 US dollars / ton, closing at 17,000 US dollars / ton. The benchmark three-month zinc was affected by the weak fundamentals, with relatively small gains, closing at US$1172.5/ton, with a downside risk. However, based on the general strength of the base metals market, it is expected that the zinc price will still rise, and the next resistance level is at 1,200 US dollars/ton. COMEX copper market report: New York, October 9 news: Friday's sharp decline in the dollar and the strike of the Chilean copper company caused the copper supply to be threatened, triggering stop-loss buying and fund buying boosted the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) December copper Intraday reached a record high of $1.4820/lb for 15 years. It was the high level since April 1989 and it closed at $1.4650/lb. A large number of fund purchases entered the market on the same day, and Chinese traders returning to the market after the holidays are bound to buy funds and cover short positions. The sharp decline in the dollar after the release of the US employment data provided support for copper prices. The weaker dollar will increase international demand for its priced goods. The United States announced on the 8th that the non-agricultural employment report for September showed that the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 96,000. It had previously been expected to increase by about 145,000, and the unemployment rate was 5.4%, which was the same as in August. The strike by the Chilean state-owned copper company (Codelco) was another support factor for the rise in copper prices, but at the same time it increased the market’s concerns about copper supply. The copper market also saw trade selling on the same day, and some speculators showed signs of profit taking. . The London Metal Exchange’s copper inventories fell by 1625 tons to 92,000 tons on the 8th. On the 8th, the copper stocks on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 590 short tons to 46,885 short tons.