Abstract: With the continuous rise of China's inflation data, the market and the government are highly nervous, and the public's anxiety is also rising rapidly. CPI data has reached record highs in recent months, getting closer to the peak of 8.7% inflation in the last round. Whether it is the high level of leading indicators such as PPI or the severe international quantitative easing situation, it indicates that this inflation cycle is difficult to end. The long-term trend of inflationary pressure seems to be difficult to reverse.
Along with the continuous rise of China's inflation data, the market and the government are highly nervous, and the public's anxiety is also rising rapidly. CPI data has reached record highs in recent months, getting closer to the peak of 8.7% inflation in the last round. Whether it is the high level of leading indicators such as PPI or the severe international quantitative easing situation, it indicates that this inflation cycle is difficult to end. The long-term trend of inflationary pressure seems to be difficult to reverse.
Many analysts have expected that due to the hikes and the correction of agricultural prices, the CPI will fall in June and July, but more factors have already made China's inflation into a long-term state. Analysts' expectations can only become illusion. In just over a year, the rapid increase in CPI data also shows that this trend has become more apparent.
This round of inflation, analysis is nothing more than the combination of the four factors: the high growth of credit; food prices are affected by the weather and speculation factors; the service industry is subject to inflation due to rising labor costs and land rent; The price of energy, resources and public fees has risen.
The former two were originally short-term factors driving prices. However, due to the sluggish monetary tightening and the reversal of agricultural prices, these two factors have gradually become a direct and long-term factor in pushing up inflation.
The latter two have always been long-term factors. With the closure of the demographic dividend window, housing prices remain high, and service industry inflation is a matter of course. Now it is just a sign that it has compensated for the low wages and profit levels of the service industry.
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