The abstract "unswervingly reduces the cost of various enterprises. It is necessary to further implement the policy of cutting interest rates and lowering the standard." This is the proposal in the article "Better play of the key role of investment in economic growth" issued by the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission on the morning of the 3rd. but until...
"Unswervingly reduce the cost of various enterprises. Opportunities to further implement the policy of cutting interest rates and lowering the RRR." This is the proposal in the article "Better play of the key role of investment in economic growth" issued by the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission on the morning of the 3rd. But by the afternoon of the 3rd, the above words had been deleted. This move has caused strong concern. Some views believe that the deletion of texts may imply a message: so far, the RRR cuts and interest rate cuts are not considered by the government and the central bank.
However, a person close to the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission told the “First Financial Daily†reporter that this is not a document that has been officially issued and is in force. It is only a reserve-oriented, forward-looking research report of the Political Development and Reform Commission. This kind of research report has many in the political reform and research section of the National Development and Reform Commission. It is necessary to choose whether to introduce or not according to the economic situation. Often, such files can be officially released, and they must go through multiple procedures and perhaps be modified.
An official of the Ministry of Finance told this reporter that the current monetary policy effect is very small. "Everyone hopes that fiscal policy and structural reforms will boost the economy, or that fiscal policy and monetary policy will coordinate. It may be due to excessive interpretation of the media or sensitive reactions in the market."
The latest article on the central bank's website on the evening of the 3rd shows that the 2016 central bank branch president's symposium said that it will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, timely pre-adjust and fine-tune, and enhance pertinence and effectiveness.
Is it necessary to cut interest rates and reduce the RRR?
Some experts interviewed by the "First Financial Daily" reporter said that the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission is a research institution within the National Development and Reform Commission. Its research perspective is no different from other market research. It is also based on the trend of the economy, so it can also have Your own point of view. But it does not mean that future policies will certainly do so.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, also told this reporter: "This is a report on the nature of policy research. It does not have the market's guess that it is to release certain policy signals. The deletion is to avoid excessive market. Interpretation."
There are also views that the decision-making power of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts is in the central bank, even the State Council, and the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a document suggesting that the opportunity to cut interest rates and lower the RRR may mislead the market. This may be the main reason for the above proposal being deleted.
Then, is it necessary to cut interest rates and lower the RRR at the current stage?
The central bank cut interest rates five times in 2015. Currently, the one-year lending benchmark interest rate of financial institutions has been lowered to 4.35%, and the benchmark interest rate for commercial loans over five years has fallen to 4.9%.
The above-mentioned person from the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the current trend of economic development is still not very clear. As a reserve policy, it is still possible to study interest rate cuts and RRR cuts.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, told this newspaper that from the perspective of economic growth, it is necessary and space for corporate financing costs to fall. In this case, interest rates will be cut.
However, he also stressed that the interest rate cut should still consider the other side, that is, whether the RMB exchange rate will bring some pressure. Right now, the United States has entered a rate hike cycle. If interest rates are cut at this time, the pressure on the RMB depreciation will be even greater. This will have two effects: on the one hand, it may have an effect on exports, but it is not very big; on the other hand, depreciation may accelerate capital outflows, leading to a decline in China's investment growth rate.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, told this reporter that the real cost of private financing is overestimated, and the current interest rate for enterprises is actually not high.
According to his research, the current private enterprise financing interest rate is 6.6%~6.7%, and the highest level of 9.6% has fallen sharply. In particular, the financing interest rate and the company's EBIT margin are compared, and the current spread is almost at the same level as in 2012.
Whether to continue to lower the standard, it is necessary to judge according to the liquidity situation, it depends on whether the foreign exchange holdings continue to decrease. In June this year, foreign exchange holdings decreased by 97.727 billion yuan from May. According to Sheng Songcheng, director of the Bureau of Investigation and Statistics of the central bank, the reduction is mainly related to the financial market volatility caused by the UK “Brexit†referendum. Prior to this, foreign exchange holdings decreased by 33.7 billion yuan in May, and the decline narrowed for five consecutive months.
Lian Ping said that in addition to the RRR cut, the central bank currently has many alternative regulatory tools that do not meet the liquidity arrangements in the short and medium term. The impact of RRR cuts on various aspects may be relatively large.
The political commissar of Lu said that from the perspective of the overall policy orientation of the entire country, the possibility of further RRR reduction is not great.
On May 9 this year, authoritative sources first proposed the “real estate bubble†in the “People’s Daily†article, and warned of the risks. On July 26, the Central Political Bureau meeting proposed "inhibiting the asset bubble", and the industry insiders explained that this mainly points to the real estate industry.
"In the context of such a policy, once the RRR is lowered, it is easy to cause misunderstanding of the market, especially in real estate." Lu political commissar told this reporter.
The above-mentioned officials of the Ministry of Finance also said that in the near term, there is not much room for interest rate cuts and RRR cuts. Even if interest rates are cut or lowered, the marginal effects of policies are also decreasing.
How monetary policy can help to capacity
Although boosting the economy now requires more fiscal policy and structural reforms, the importance of sound monetary policy is irreplaceable.
One of the arguments of the Lu political commissar is very interesting: "The economy was overheated in 2010 and 2011, and 2012 is a time node for downward transfer. The situation of macroeconomics and micro-enterprises is not bad, which indicates that the current interest rate has returned. A relatively good level. If the company can't survive in this situation, is it a 'zombie company', or is there any other problem?"
In the first half of the year, China’s production transcripts were “released†one day before. In the first half of the year, the steel and coal industry's de-capacity tasks only achieved 30% and 29% of the annual target. To achieve the goal of the whole year, it means that about 70% of the annual tasks will be completed in the second half of the year, and the pressure on production capacity will increase.
Recently, the party committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) recently published a signed article in the magazine Qiushi, “Resolutely Fighting Quality and Efficiency and Strengthening the Battleâ€, referring to the combination of dissolving excess capacity in the steel and coal industries and accelerating the disposal of “zombie enterprisesâ€, on petroleum and petrochemicals, thermal power, Specially supervised enterprises with high pressures such as automobiles and coal.
So, what role can monetary policy play in de-capacity? Lian Ping said that monetary policy has little direct effect on de-capacity. "More capacity is a structural problem, or it must be through credit, such as strict control of credit supply in industries with overcapacity, or through structural tools. Money flows to industries supported by policy, etc."
Lu political commissar said that from the performance of the bond market, it can be seen that the current credit spreads of steel, coal, nonferrous metals, chemical and other industries are relatively large, and financing costs are relatively high, but financing costs such as medicines and urban investment bonds are relatively low, and interest rates are even It can be said that it reached the lowest level in history. This is a very healthy phenomenon and should be optimistic. Only differentiated financing costs can promote backward production capacity and zombie enterprises to withdraw from the market.
Of course, de-capacity is not just as simple as retreating and integrating. Hu Chi, a researcher at the Research Center of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, told this reporter that the current capacity to go is indeed facing great difficulties and obstacles. Local governments have considerations of local GDP, taxation, and social stability. Corporate debt problems, personnel placement issues, and historical legacy issues have constrained the rate of capacity removal. In addition, the rebound in prices has caused overcapacity companies to remain on the market.
Xiang Anbo, director of the State-owned Enterprise Research Office of the Enterprise Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told this reporter that the focus of the next step in the production capacity is that the central government has set up a 100 billion-level steel and coal industry to replenish the production and make up funds. It will resolve the role of excess capacity and staff placement; second, it must actively and steadily promote the restructuring and integration of Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel's two major steel enterprises; third, play the newly established central enterprise coal asset management platform company (Guoyuan) in capacity and promotion The role of development.
Hu Chi said that in the first half of the year, the target tasks and completion paths for capacity reduction have been formulated. The progress in the second half of the year will generally be faster than that in the first half of the year. In addition, the supervision of the SASAC will increase the capacity to accelerate the production capacity. It is very hopeful to achieve.
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