Today's point of view
Today's domestic steel price trend is still weak, and the business operations are mainly based on shipments. The overall wait-and-see attitude is obvious. It is reported that yesterday evening, the State Council issued the "Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War". This year's autumn and winter peak production will expand from 2+26 cities to the Yangtze River Delta region and the Plain Plains region. Steel prices are welcoming. However, the short-term traditional high-temperature and rainy seasons continue, terminal procurement is negative, and the steel market mainstream still maintains a weak operation. Even if the futures side is stronger, the proposed operation still needs to be cautious.
Macro hotspot
1. [Domestic commodity futures mostly closed down, non-ferrous metals accelerated down) Shanghai zinc closed down 3.2%, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai copper, ferrosilicon fell more than 2%, manganese silicon, rapeseed, Shanghai lead, palm, crude oil, Soybean meal fell more than 1%, Zheng cotton, eggs, coking coal, apples, rubber, cotton yarn, Shanghai tin, iron ore, sugar, Shanghai aluminum and so on fell. Zheng alcohol closed up 1.8%, thread, coke, hot coil, Zheng coal, glass, Shanghai silver, asphalt, plastic, Shanghai gold, corn, etc. closed up.
2, [three major indexes have been falling, the gold sector has risen against the trend]
The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,759.13 points, down 1.00%, with a turnover of 311 billion.
The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9035.49 points, down 2.02%, with a turnover of 98.7 billion.
The GEM closed at 1565.61 points, down 2.58%, with a turnover of 73.2 billion.
3, [Caixin service industry, comprehensive PMI comment: the service industry drives the economy to climb, the economic boom is persistent.] The confidence of the two major industry companies in the prospects for the next 12 months has declined. Among them, service industry confidence is stronger than manufacturing, but still weaker than its historical level. Zhong Zhengsheng, chairman and chief economist of Caixin Research Institute, said that the accelerated cost increase has suppressed the confidence of service companies. Zhong Zhengsheng said that the Caixin China Composite Output Index rebounded significantly from last month, indicating that the economy is stable and positive. However, from the perspective of sub-items, the upward pressure on prices has increased at the margin, and the employment index has fallen below the line of glory. Business confidence is less than before. In the context of tightening financing and regulatory environment, the sustainability of the economy is questionable.
4, [Country Garden called the “full coverage†strategy of the 3, 4 and 5 line cities, and used the scale for cash.] At least the insiders of Country Garden from five regions revealed that the current work is all around cash flow, and the cooperation project can’t be done. "Operation" project. Country Garden requires that the projects in the third- and fourth-tier cities must start on the ground and adhere to the “456†principle, that is, the opening of the four-month period, the five-month fund is positive, and the six-month return funds will be able to be invested in new projects. Not only that, in order to achieve a rapid return of cash, there are people inside Country Garden, some projects, even if the profits turn negative, but also grab cash flow.
Market today
Raw material
Billet: The national billet market price has slightly strengthened. Tangshan steel billet rose 20 yuan / ton, other regions temporarily stabilized. In the early morning, Changli led the market up by 10%. After the increase, the overall billet transaction was general, and the price of downstream finished products was stable and small. Tangshan billet was sold straight, and the stock of stocks around 3700 was included in the tax. The steel futures tend to fluctuate, and some of the downstream finished materials can be sold in a general manner.
Domestic mines: Some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas fell slightly. The prices of Anshan, Haicheng, Liaoyang and Benxi in Liaoning fell by RMB 10/ton. Specifically, the North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory is 635-645 yuan / ton, the west of the 66% dry-based tax-included cash out of 620-630 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 645-655 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 630-640 yuan / ton; Kuancheng 65% dry basis tax-included cash factory 560 yuan / ton.
Imported mines: After yesterday's trading volume, the traders' enthusiasm was higher this morning. The offer price of mainstream Australian powder was stable compared with yesterday. The price of lump ore was raised by 10-15 yuan/ton compared with yesterday; the mainstream of PB powder in Tangshan, Shandong The price is 460 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PB block is 640 yuan / ton. Although the activity of today's enquiry has decreased compared with yesterday, the overall market transaction is still acceptable. Market transactions: Jingtang Port: PB powder 463/455, Newman powder 493, Newman block 650; Caofeidian: PB powder 450 clear bottom, PB block 630, Jinbuba powder 415, Newman sieve powder 466, BRBF518, high silicon Rough 375; Tianjin Port: unscreened Newman block 625, super special powder 298; Qingdao port: PB powder 450, PB block 630/633, Luo powder 317/318, super special powder 280; Rizhao port: PB powder 450, PB block 630, Jinbuba powder 415; Yanqiao Port: PB powder 452, unscreened Newman block 615; Laoshan port: Yang Di powder 390; Lianyungang: Newman powder 480; Jiangne ​​port: PB powder 480.
Steel spot
Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices are adjusted in a narrow range. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,124 yuan/ton, which was 2 yuan/ton higher than that of the previous trading day, of which the East China and Central China regions rebounded slightly; the northeast and northwest regions continued to be weak; the South China and North China regions were narrow. Adjusted to the main. Specifically, the early trading companies held steady quotations, and the snails rose in the later period. The confidence in the spot market was boosted, and the transactions were also significantly heavy. The demand in some regions was not good and the prices were slightly loose. At present, the expected heavy recovery in the previous period has eased, the market mentality has recovered, and the volume and price have risen. However, considering the low demand in the off-season, the transaction is unstable, and the merchants still rely on shipping. On the whole, it is expected that domestic construction steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.
Hot-rolled coil: Today, the hot rolling prices of 24 major cities nationwide are narrowly consolidating. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils is 4,313 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils. 4,254 yuan / ton, down 3 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Today's futures market rose slightly, market confidence improved, and merchants' offers were narrowly consolidating, and market transactions improved slightly. At present, the overall demand in the market is weak, the transaction is difficult to sustain, and the space for price increases is limited. However, steel mill prices are still at a high level, and costs are more supportive of prices. In addition, today's billet market price rose by 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,620 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price fell slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4,374 yuan / ton, down 8 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. Today, there are some signs of stabilization in the market. Most of the market prices are mainly stable, and individual markets still have a small decline. In the near term, the overall market demand is weak, the inventory is showing an increasing trend, and the futures are weakening, and the market price is gradually lower. With the small rebound in today's futures, the business mentality has improved, and the market price has stabilized. The pricing of steel mills has been somewhat loose recently, but the overall price is still relatively high, and the price support is still relatively strong. In addition, today's billet market price rose by 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,620 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the plate market will fluctuate tomorrow.
Cold rolled coil: Today's national cold rolling prices fell slightly. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,713 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day price fell 2 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4670 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4660 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4550 yuan / ton. Market: Today's national prices are basically stable, and some markets are down. The Wuhan market is affected by the shortage of conventional specifications and the high cost of arrival next month. The price is firm and raised by RMB 50/ton. Demand: Due to the high temperature and rainy season, terminal procurement is limited, and traders are mainly selling at reduced prices. It is expected that the cold rolling price will continue to be weak tomorrow.
Profiles: Today's domestic steel is weakly consolidating, and the angle of the working angle is slightly better by the rebound of the billet price, while the H-beam resources continue to increase with the resources and the price is stable. Specifically, the Tangshan early angle of the Tangshan small increase of 10 yuan / ton, the channel steel steady. In the morning, the overall transaction was general, and the shipments were mostly concentrated at low prices. The raw steel billets in the plate have risen by RMB 20/ton, which has a certain boost to the business mentality. The rolling mills are willing to pay a good price. After all, the market demand is general, and the stable operation in the afternoon has not followed the rise, and the overall transaction is still acceptable. However, the price of East China profiles was weak, and some cities loosened by RMB 20/ton. Although the futures and billet prices all rebounded, the spot market was affected by factors such as the increase in resources and the unsatisfactory turnover. The operation expectation is still biased towards fast shipment. The quotation in the South China region continued to be stable, and the price of some specifications of H-beams was slightly reduced. Although the price of Tangshan steel mills has risen slightly, but South China's profiles are not well-sold, merchants are cautious in price increases, and operations tend to be more proactive. It is expected that the overall market growth will remain weak in the short term, but the spot price boosted by futures and billets will be stable.
Steel pipe: Domestic pipe prices have fallen slightly today. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4354 yuan/ton, which is 9 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5059 yuan/ton, compared with the previous trading day. It fell by 8 yuan/ton; the average price of seamless pipe 108*405mm was 5238 yuan/ton, which was 5 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. Regarding the pipe factory, the prices of Tianjin Youfa, Juncheng and Lida were not adjusted. The hot rolling price of Linyi mainstream seamless pipe factory was 4,750 yuan/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the market transactions were general, traders were quicker and faster, and the stocks remained low. The market sentiment was still empty. In terms of seamless pipes, the market transactions are poor, traders are mainly shipping, the willingness to replenish the warehouse is not high, the pressure on the inventory of the pipe factory is increasing, and the price is still likely to be lowered. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will continue to fluctuate and run weaker tomorrow.
Futures: Today, domestic black commodity futures are mixed, with large volume of transactions and large inflows of funds. Among them, the performance of finished products is relatively strong and rises independently; followed by coke, a slight increase, iron ore and coking coal are relatively weak. From the news point of view: The State Council issued a three-year work plan to win the blue sky defense war. The coverage of the environmental protection policy was expanded from the original 2+26 city to the Yangtze River Delta region and the plain; the bulk cargo such as port ore and coke was changed from highway to highway. For railway or waterway transportation, it is estimated that after the expansion of the scope, the steel production capacity will increase by about 200 million tons on the original basis. The market sentiment was fermented, and the current linkages rose slightly. The traders' mentality was good and the market transactions were good. From the overall point of view, the current thread basis still has about 350 repair space, the market has limited space to fall, the overall snail oscillation operation, the above recommendations, the bargain-hunting, rolling operations.
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