China and India, as well as developing countries in a period of rapid economic growth, also have a large population, and their energy needs are urgent. Recently, China’s “12th Five-Year Plan†new energy development plan proposal has been settled, and India has also launched a large-scale renewable energy development plan. China PK India, who is the newcomer to the solar market? Who can stop the overcapacity of the world's photovoltaic industry? We can comprehensively assess it from several aspects.
Installed target
China: In the new energy "12th Five-Year" development plan (proposal), the photovoltaic "12th Five-Year" (2015) installed capacity is raised to 10GW, and the PV installation target by 2020 may be significantly raised to 50GW.
India: The Central Government of India launched the "Nehru National Solar Vision" (JNNSM) in January last year. The first phase of the program, from January 2010 to March 2013, targeted the total installed capacity of 1.3 GW of solar energy. The second phase began in April 2013 and strives to complete the total installed capacity of 3.7 GW by March 2017. In addition, the total installed capacity of 17 GW is planned to be implemented from April 2017 to March 2022. For this year, the Indian government will invest 2.2 billion US dollars to develop solar energy, and strive to achieve 700MW of new PV installed capacity.
Analysis: From the perspective of installed targets, China's solar installation targets are above India. Even if the actual installed capacity is shrinking than the target is expected in the future, China's current cost control situation and the status of attracting funds will not be worse than India's shrinkage.
Industry situation
China: The world's largest PV industry manufacturing country. China produces more than 50% of the world's photovoltaic modules. Leading technology in many aspects. There are dozens of large-scale pilot companies in China's photovoltaic industry, and they control the cost very low. However, Chinese engineering development companies lack experience with overseas companies.
India: The Indian PV industry is in its infancy and is not technically mature. But India has a successful experience in the IT industry and a cheap workforce that, once started, will be competitive in the low-end market. However, the Indian government is very supportive of the country's photovoltaic industry, and has set up many barriers for foreign companies in domestic projects. India also lacks experience in engineering construction.
Analysis: China's photovoltaic industry is far stronger than India, which provides convenient conditions for the spread of solar power in China. But the market is ultimately an open market, and India's ambitions in energy generation may benefit the global PV industry, including China.
Subsidy policy
China: Since July 2009, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Energy Administration jointly launched the Golden Sun Demonstration Project. On July 15 this year, the third batch of Golden Sun Project will be declared. China's subsidy for photovoltaic engineering power station construction is investment subsidies. Subsidies are based on the total investment amount or installed wattage. At the beginning of the implementation of the plan, the project included in the Golden Sun Demonstration Project will be subsidized in principle according to 50% of the total investment of the photovoltaic power generation system and its supporting transmission and distribution projects. The independent photovoltaic power generation system in remote and non-powered areas will be 70% of the total investment. Grant a grant. The third batch of Golden Sun Demonstration Projects recently announced stipulates that the subsidy standard for demonstration projects using crystalline silicon components is 9 yuan/watt, and that for amorphous silicon thin film modules is 8 yuan/watt; the subsidy standard for independent photovoltaic power generation projects is separately determine.
India: Influenced by the West, India uses FiT (Feed-In Tariff) subsidies to support the solar industry. In Gujarat, in western India, the electricity produced by the operators will be based on Gujarat's fixed-price acquisition system, which will be acquired by power companies in various regions for 12 years at a price of 13 rupees/kWh. After 13 years, it will still be purchased at 9 rupees/kWh, ensuring a higher fixed price within 25 years. However, the specific subsidies are not so certain. In the recent report, the subsidy for the 500 MW project in Gujarat was 15 rubles/kWh for 10 years. No matter how much, the domestic developers in India seem to be not very satisfied with this subsidy.
Analysis: The financial subsidies for photovoltaic power in the two countries are not very stable, and they are in the stage of system exploration. The developers who contract projects seem to have some complaints. But the determination of the two countries to support renewable energy is obvious. In the case that the overall economy is not developed enough and the specific project operation is not mature enough, on the one hand, it is necessary to stimulate the installation volume. On the other hand, it is necessary to ensure that the interests of the government, foreign capital, enterprises and people are balanced, and the pain of experiencing the exploration stage will be inevitable. of.
Existing engineering
China: Since the implementation of the Golden Sun Project, China's photovoltaic engineering construction has made little progress, and the current domestic PV installation volume is about 1GW. However, there have been repeated reports that the Golden Sun project was eventually stranded. Most of China's solar projects are photovoltaic systems. There are few technologies used in solar thermal power generation. In terms of scale, China's current largest photovoltaic project is 20MW.
India: At present, the Indian solar market is still in a ready stage, in other words, it is only in preparation. It is reported that India's current domestic solar installed capacity is only 40MW. India is expected to invest $2.2 billion in solar energy this year to achieve an installed capacity of 700 MW. But in fact, there is currently only $100 million in investment. In terms of scale, India’s first power plant tender has a ceiling of 5MW, which will be relaxed to 20~25GW this time. However, the Indian government prefers solar thermal power generation compared to photovoltaics. In the first solar project bidding in 2010, the Indian government only accounted for 150MW of photovoltaic projects, while the solar thermal project accounted for 470MW.
Analysis: From the perspective of the existing market size, India and China are not in a heavyweight category. If China is an emerging market, India can only be considered a potential market. What is even more frustrating for PV industry is that India is not particularly fluent about the world's mainstream photovoltaic technology, and is more inclined to develop solar thermal power like California.
to sum up
Although Indian government officials have vowed to say: "From now on, people will not have to worry about the instability of Germany, Spain, Italy and other countries." But the opening of the Indian PV market is still slow. It is not difficult to see that in terms of industry scale, technology, financing status and corporate maturity, India is slightly less than China. On the one hand, India wants to develop solar energy on a large scale, and on the other hand, it does not want to benefit foreign companies. This makes it face two difficulties in developing solar energy: not only to solve the funding and technical problems in the installation process, but also to solve the weak production links. The problem, otherwise the cost can not be reduced will become the executioner to kill the Indian solar market. However, India is at a low latitude, with abundant solar energy resources, a huge energy gap, and its breakthrough in finding a breakthrough in CSP, which makes people dare not underestimate its potential. Although China's solar energy market is well received and the industry base is good, whether it is possible to formulate a subsidy policy in line with domestic conditions is the fundamental problem.
Installed target
China: In the new energy "12th Five-Year" development plan (proposal), the photovoltaic "12th Five-Year" (2015) installed capacity is raised to 10GW, and the PV installation target by 2020 may be significantly raised to 50GW.
India: The Central Government of India launched the "Nehru National Solar Vision" (JNNSM) in January last year. The first phase of the program, from January 2010 to March 2013, targeted the total installed capacity of 1.3 GW of solar energy. The second phase began in April 2013 and strives to complete the total installed capacity of 3.7 GW by March 2017. In addition, the total installed capacity of 17 GW is planned to be implemented from April 2017 to March 2022. For this year, the Indian government will invest 2.2 billion US dollars to develop solar energy, and strive to achieve 700MW of new PV installed capacity.
Analysis: From the perspective of installed targets, China's solar installation targets are above India. Even if the actual installed capacity is shrinking than the target is expected in the future, China's current cost control situation and the status of attracting funds will not be worse than India's shrinkage.
Industry situation
China: The world's largest PV industry manufacturing country. China produces more than 50% of the world's photovoltaic modules. Leading technology in many aspects. There are dozens of large-scale pilot companies in China's photovoltaic industry, and they control the cost very low. However, Chinese engineering development companies lack experience with overseas companies.
India: The Indian PV industry is in its infancy and is not technically mature. But India has a successful experience in the IT industry and a cheap workforce that, once started, will be competitive in the low-end market. However, the Indian government is very supportive of the country's photovoltaic industry, and has set up many barriers for foreign companies in domestic projects. India also lacks experience in engineering construction.
Analysis: China's photovoltaic industry is far stronger than India, which provides convenient conditions for the spread of solar power in China. But the market is ultimately an open market, and India's ambitions in energy generation may benefit the global PV industry, including China.
Subsidy policy
China: Since July 2009, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Energy Administration jointly launched the Golden Sun Demonstration Project. On July 15 this year, the third batch of Golden Sun Project will be declared. China's subsidy for photovoltaic engineering power station construction is investment subsidies. Subsidies are based on the total investment amount or installed wattage. At the beginning of the implementation of the plan, the project included in the Golden Sun Demonstration Project will be subsidized in principle according to 50% of the total investment of the photovoltaic power generation system and its supporting transmission and distribution projects. The independent photovoltaic power generation system in remote and non-powered areas will be 70% of the total investment. Grant a grant. The third batch of Golden Sun Demonstration Projects recently announced stipulates that the subsidy standard for demonstration projects using crystalline silicon components is 9 yuan/watt, and that for amorphous silicon thin film modules is 8 yuan/watt; the subsidy standard for independent photovoltaic power generation projects is separately determine.
India: Influenced by the West, India uses FiT (Feed-In Tariff) subsidies to support the solar industry. In Gujarat, in western India, the electricity produced by the operators will be based on Gujarat's fixed-price acquisition system, which will be acquired by power companies in various regions for 12 years at a price of 13 rupees/kWh. After 13 years, it will still be purchased at 9 rupees/kWh, ensuring a higher fixed price within 25 years. However, the specific subsidies are not so certain. In the recent report, the subsidy for the 500 MW project in Gujarat was 15 rubles/kWh for 10 years. No matter how much, the domestic developers in India seem to be not very satisfied with this subsidy.
Analysis: The financial subsidies for photovoltaic power in the two countries are not very stable, and they are in the stage of system exploration. The developers who contract projects seem to have some complaints. But the determination of the two countries to support renewable energy is obvious. In the case that the overall economy is not developed enough and the specific project operation is not mature enough, on the one hand, it is necessary to stimulate the installation volume. On the other hand, it is necessary to ensure that the interests of the government, foreign capital, enterprises and people are balanced, and the pain of experiencing the exploration stage will be inevitable. of.
Existing engineering
China: Since the implementation of the Golden Sun Project, China's photovoltaic engineering construction has made little progress, and the current domestic PV installation volume is about 1GW. However, there have been repeated reports that the Golden Sun project was eventually stranded. Most of China's solar projects are photovoltaic systems. There are few technologies used in solar thermal power generation. In terms of scale, China's current largest photovoltaic project is 20MW.
India: At present, the Indian solar market is still in a ready stage, in other words, it is only in preparation. It is reported that India's current domestic solar installed capacity is only 40MW. India is expected to invest $2.2 billion in solar energy this year to achieve an installed capacity of 700 MW. But in fact, there is currently only $100 million in investment. In terms of scale, India’s first power plant tender has a ceiling of 5MW, which will be relaxed to 20~25GW this time. However, the Indian government prefers solar thermal power generation compared to photovoltaics. In the first solar project bidding in 2010, the Indian government only accounted for 150MW of photovoltaic projects, while the solar thermal project accounted for 470MW.
Analysis: From the perspective of the existing market size, India and China are not in a heavyweight category. If China is an emerging market, India can only be considered a potential market. What is even more frustrating for PV industry is that India is not particularly fluent about the world's mainstream photovoltaic technology, and is more inclined to develop solar thermal power like California.
to sum up
Although Indian government officials have vowed to say: "From now on, people will not have to worry about the instability of Germany, Spain, Italy and other countries." But the opening of the Indian PV market is still slow. It is not difficult to see that in terms of industry scale, technology, financing status and corporate maturity, India is slightly less than China. On the one hand, India wants to develop solar energy on a large scale, and on the other hand, it does not want to benefit foreign companies. This makes it face two difficulties in developing solar energy: not only to solve the funding and technical problems in the installation process, but also to solve the weak production links. The problem, otherwise the cost can not be reduced will become the executioner to kill the Indian solar market. However, India is at a low latitude, with abundant solar energy resources, a huge energy gap, and its breakthrough in finding a breakthrough in CSP, which makes people dare not underestimate its potential. Although China's solar energy market is well received and the industry base is good, whether it is possible to formulate a subsidy policy in line with domestic conditions is the fundamental problem.
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