The third fastest growth rate According to the statistics of the China Machinery Industry Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Association), the national industry increased by 11.0% from January to April 2012, and the machinery industry grew by 8.8%. In the 12 industrial sectors, the machinery industry ranked first in growth rate in 2010 and fifth in 2011. It fell to 10th in January-April this year (only higher than the petrochemical industry and the power industry). From January to April, the total industrial output value was 5.4663 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.13%. The growth rate was the lowest since 2009, which was 13 percentage points lower than the growth rate that had fallen sharply in 2011. It is worth noting that the accumulated profits in the first quarter of 2012 were 238.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.24%. The increase in profit has been rare for many years and is much lower than the growth rate of the same period of production and sales (about 12%). The decline in export earnings growth is also obvious. From January to April, the foreign exchange earned by machinery industry increased by 14.73% year-on-year. Compared with the increase of 29.23% in the same period of last year, the growth rate dropped by 14.5 percentage points. From the analysis of specific product varieties, among the 119 main products, 74 kinds of output increased year-on-year, accounting for 62%; 45 kinds of output decreased, accounting for 38%. The decline in production of so many products is rare in recent years. This also reflects the downturn in the economic operation of the machinery industry at the beginning of this year. In addition, the production and sales rate of mechanical products from January to April was 97.21%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.59 percentage points, indicating that sales difficulties were more serious. Many machinery sub-industries have this feeling, that is, the market has rebounded significantly in March, but there is still hesitation about whether this signs of improvement can continue. Cai Weici said that from the statistics of the association, although the growth rate of the entire machinery industry has rebounded significantly in March, it is worrying that there has been a downward trend in April. For example, in the first two months of 2012, the total output value increased by 11.62% year-on-year, while it rose to 13.27% in the first three months, and fell to 12.13% in January-April. Insufficient confidence is the biggest disadvantage . The primary factor contributing to the slowdown in growth is the slowdown in demand. From January to March of this year, the cumulative order amount of key enterprises in the machinery industry decreased by 2.89% year-on-year. Compared with the growth rate of more than 20% in previous years, it can be described as two days. Among them, construction machinery, machine tools, trucks, power generation equipment (especially nuclear power and wind power equipment) are particularly difficult. There is also a clear sign that the company owes a serious payment. According to the statistics of the association, the current accounts receivable of enterprises have reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%. In the survey of the association, it is felt that the actual situation of accounts receivable is likely to be more serious than the book increase of 17.88% of the National Bureau of Statistics. Under the multiple squeezes of slowing demand, falling prices and rising costs, the profit margin of the main business income of the machinery industry in the first three months of this year dropped by 0.61 percentage points year-on-year. Cai Weici believes that in addition to the aforementioned factors such as sluggish demand, falling prices and rising costs, he believes that the biggest danger is lack of confidence. From the outside, it is the political crisis in Western Europe that has once again triggered the European debt crisis, which has once again intensified and is difficult to predict. From the domestic perspective, the macroeconomic data in April was significantly worse than expected, causing a greater psychological impact on industry enterprises. Shock. If you do not respond quickly, it may spread the panic, which will cause the company to slow down investment and wait and see, further trapping the economic situation into a vicious circle. Cai Weici also said that in terms of the machinery industry, it has been normal to grow too fast in the past few years, and it is normal to slow down the growth rate; as long as the control is around 15%, there is no need to panic. Although it is difficult to make accurate predictions about future trends, we believe that as long as the state appropriately increases its support for real economic growth and prevents the spread of panic, the normal development in March will enable double digits throughout the year. increase. "It is expected that the machinery industry will bottom out in the second quarter, but it is not expected to rebound quickly afterwards; it is estimated that it will continue to grow for a long period of time on the new platform that has been significantly reduced compared with previous years. This year is expected to show "previous period" The pattern of decline to the bottom, post-low or steady recovery, is expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. That is, production and sales growth is expected to be around 18%; profit growth is expected to be around 12%; export growth is expected to be 15 %about."
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