Forecast of the occurrence trend of major crop diseases and insect pests in Taiyuan City in 2005

First, the general trend of the city's agricultural planting structure, wintering or occurrence of pests and diseases, meteorological conditions and other factors, it is estimated that in 2005 the city's major crops of major pests and diseases grasses moderate to moderate weight. The annual pest and disease occurrence area is about 5.8 million mu, and the area to be protected is more than 700 million mu.
II. Prediction of major pests and diseases of major crops 1. Vegetable crop pests and diseases The occurrence period of vegetable pests and diseases in protected areas is expected to appear in advance in 2-3 months. It is mainly used for micro-pests such as whitefly, Liriomyza sativae, thrips, and rapeseed, as well as downy mildew, gray mold, late blight, spot blight, leaf mold, blight, and bacterial diseases. It is moderate to medium and prevails.
In the spring and summer, the open field vegetables mainly occur in insect pests, and in the late summer and early autumn, the disease is mainly moderately prevalent. The southern area is epidemic, cabbage downy mildew and eggplant verticillium are moderately prevalent. Liriomyza sativae, rapeseed, and diamondback moth are more important in the middle and south than in the north. Helicoverpa armigera, tobacco budworm, beet armyworm, etc. Moderate occurrence.
2. Food crop pests and diseases Food crop pests occur moderately, and diseases are moderately prevalent. It is expected that wheat aphids, corn borer, scaly beetle, twenty-eight ladybug, rice bran, and stem borer will occur moderately to moderately; wheat leaf rust, wheat powdery mildew, corn dwarf mosaic disease, corn size spot disease The incidence of millet white is moderate. Small ground tigers and underground pests occur from moderate to moderate.
3. Fruit and tree crop pests and diseases Grapes, apples and pears in the south-central region are mainly diseased in spring and autumn, and pests are dominant in the northern region. It is expected that apple tree rot disease, pear black spot disease, apple spotted leaf disease, grape downy mildew are moderately popular, and the scarab, the peach heartworm, the yellowfly, the red spider, the scale insect, and the aphid are moderate to moderate.
4, flowers, seedlings, lawns, oil pests and diseases are expected to use aphids, scale insects, flower diseases and turf underground pests, powdery mildew-based flowers, seedlings, lawn pests and diseases will be moderate to moderate weight occurs, the area is near the suburbs of the city The area is dominated, and sunflower rust is moderately prevalent.
5. Outbreak pests It is expected that the grassland in the northwest will continue to rise, and the second generation of armyworms and rice blasts will still occur in Jinyuan and Xiaodian. The area of ​​violent pests in the city will reach 650,000 mu.
6. Farmland weeds and rodents are expected to cause moderate occurrence of various crops caused by weeds and rodents in the farmland. Grass damage occurs in Pingchuan District and orchards. The rodents are mainly affected by the hilly mountains in the northwest.
See the attached table for the prediction of specific pests and diseases.

Third, the forecast reason 1, the winter base: wheat bran, corn pupa before the winter base is significantly higher than last year, respectively, 100 stems and 0.35 heads and 18. Since the beginning of winter, the aphids, whitefly, whitefly, and red spider in the greenhouse vegetable production area have occurred intermittently under the influence of warm winter gas, which provides sufficient insect source base for the occurrence of pests and diseases this year.
2. Meteorological conditions: According to Taiyuan City's professional meteorological observatory “Taiyuan short-term climate trend forecast in 2005”, the annual precipitation in Taiyuan City is the same as that in 2004, the precipitation in Pingchuan in spring is less, the summer precipitation is slightly higher than normal, and the autumn precipitation is close to normal. More than one. Temperatures from January to April are high, for the spring greenhouses of Liriomyza sativae, mites, mites, whitefly, thrips, downy mildew, leaf mold, powdery mildew and newly occurring such as wheat leaf bees, cucumber black stars Diseases and diseases such as diseases are beneficial, and favorable conditions for the early continuity of vegetable pests and diseases are also provided. In May, the temperature was slightly lower, and the prevalence of buckwheat, blight, stem-based rot and blight of protected areas of open-plant vegetables was particularly favorable for the prevalence of maize dwarf mosaic disease. The spring precipitation is 40-70 mm, which is beneficial to underground pests such as small tigers and scarabs, especially for the early aggravation of vegetable pests and diseases. The summer precipitation is 240-300 mm, which is more normal. It is beneficial to the migration, habitat, growth and development of fulminant pests, and is also conducive to the prevalence of rust and tomato diseases. The precipitation in autumn is 80-110 mm, slightly more, and the temperature is slightly lower, which is also conducive to the autumn fruit tree diseases such as grape downy mildew, early leaf disease, and autumn vegetable diseases.
3. Ecological conditions: The area of ​​vegetables and flowers in the city is expanding, the variety is increasing, and the continuous cropping is serious, which is conducive to protecting the source of insects (bacteria) over the winter and summer. The main producing areas of wheat and rice are in the wet area along the banks of the Weihe River in our city. They are interplanted with various crops and have good ecological conditions, which are conducive to the growth and development of outbreak pests such as armyworms and rice blasts. The corn contiguous area is large and the variety is large, which is conducive to disease prevalence.
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