This year, with the prosperity of the global PV installation market, the demand for PV module products has also increased significantly. The price of polysilicon in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry rose from US$17/kg last year to US$22/kg. The whole industry ushered in a wave of expansion and construction in the first half of the year.
For example, domestic polysilicon leading enterprises Poly GCL, Daxin Energy, etc. have announced this year's expansion plan, overseas companies such as Germany Wacker Wacker have the same plan.
According to the Solarbuzz report, demand for solar and semiconductor grade polysilicon is expected to rise sharply to 280,000 tons in 2014. According to an industry analyst, this year's global polysilicon supply and demand ratio will reach 1.4, that is, supply is 40% more than demand, and the supply-to-demand ratio in 2013 is 3. “Although it has been greatly improved compared to the overcapacity situation in 2013, it still needs to be alert to a new round of overcapacity,†the analyst said.
For this phenomenon, Zhao Jiasheng, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and president of the Silicon Industry Branch, also warned that there are various indications that a new round of low-level blind expansion of polysilicon has begun and should be highly valued by the industry.
Domestic production capacity will reach 150,000 tons this year.
This year's wave of polysilicon expansion is booming, and almost all leading polysilicon companies in China have announced their expansion plans.
GCL-Poly's Zhongneng Silicon Industry's 2014 modified Siemens process and the 10,000-ton silane fluidized bed project in mass production will reach an annual capacity of at least 70,000 tons; Xinjiang TBEA's existing annual capacity of 12,000 tons will be At the same time, WACKER will invest in a new project with an annual capacity of 36,000 tons in Xinjiang with TBEA; the new energy capacity will be expanded from the original 6200 tons to 12,000 this year. In ton, it will expand production by 13,000 tons in 2015, reaching a total capacity of 25,000 tons; Inner Mongolia Shenzhou Silicon Industry will expand to 3,000-4,000 tons.
According to the above data, it is estimated that the domestic polysilicon production capacity will reach 150,000 tons in 2014. In the past 2013 alone, in order to curb the overcapacity of polysilicon, according to the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry†(Guo Fa [2013] No. 24), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also issued the “Regulations for the PV Manufacturing Industryâ€. ", the elimination of some polysilicon enterprises with backward technology and outdated equipment.
Zhao Jiasheng said that in areas with rich coal resources such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, there are still plans for new projects with an annual output of 10,000 tons or even 50,000 tons. According to information from an industry authority on 21st Century Business Herald, Inner Mongolia Fengwei Silicon will expand its production capacity to 50,000 tons by March 2015, and its current production capacity is around 6,000 tons. On the other hand, although China last year reversed the imports of polysilicon products from Europe and the United States, the amount of imported polysilicon is still increasing. Statistics show that China's polysilicon imports in 2013 were about 80,000 tons, still maintaining a high level, and the proportion of the domestic demand market remained at around 50% for several consecutive years. In 2014, Germany's Wacker and OCI and other large factories have expansion plans, Hanwha, Samsung [microblogging] and so on will also have 10,000-ton capacity to achieve mass production, Japan's Deshan in Malaysia's second phase of 14,000 tons capacity is expected In the next year, the main areas of production will be in China.
Technical genre battle
Zhao Jiasheng believes that if China's polysilicon enterprises compete for market expansion in spite of market demand, coupled with the influx of overseas polysilicon, the momentum of domestic polysilicon supply and demand balance will soon be broken, and the photovoltaic industry may return to the winter of 2012. The break of the balance between supply and demand also means that the price of polysilicon may fall back to the trough of last year.
In this regard, GCL-Poly, deputy general manager Lu Jinbiao told 21st Century Business Herald: The price of polysilicon reached its lowest point in history last year, with an average of only US$17/kg per year, which has risen since the fourth quarter and has now exceeded 20 USD/kg, and whether the price of polysilicon will fluctuate this year, also depends on the mass production of new technology silane fluidized bed in the fourth quarter.
What is more serious is that “the current domestic enterprises are almost all adopting the modified Siemens process, and overseas, the silane fluidized bed process has come to the fore.†Zhao Jiasheng told reporters.
According to Lu Jinbiao, the advantages of the silane fluidized bed process are: first, it can save a lot of energy, and the silane fluidized bed consumes less than 25 degrees in the whole process, which is about 35% of the best modified Siemens method; second , to reduce costs, the second generation of the third generation of silane fluidized bed technology mass production, can reduce the full cost of polysilicon to less than 10 US dollars / kg, is now half of the best modified Siemens law.
He also told reporters that this year, GCL-Poly will have a 10,000-ton silane fluidized bed project into the equipment installation stage. At present, it is not yet possible to estimate the amount of production, but GCL-Poly has planned to gradually phase out all the improvements it has in three years. Siemens law project.
It is also known that silane fluidized bed technology is also being tested in other Chinese companies. The US REC and Shaanxi Tianhong have just signed a construction agreement of 18,000 tons of regular energy not long ago, and it is expected to start production in 2016 or 2017. Prior to this, REC USA had 1.8 tons of silane fluidized bed in operation, which is the only production line in the world except for the 1,000-ton test project of GCL-Poly.
Zhao Jiasheng said that in view of the new technological revolution, the polysilicon industry with the improved Siemens method as its core cannot be blindly rebuilt in the period of technological transformation, and it will stop production due to lack of competitiveness after the project is completed.
For example, domestic polysilicon leading enterprises Poly GCL, Daxin Energy, etc. have announced this year's expansion plan, overseas companies such as Germany Wacker Wacker have the same plan.
According to the Solarbuzz report, demand for solar and semiconductor grade polysilicon is expected to rise sharply to 280,000 tons in 2014. According to an industry analyst, this year's global polysilicon supply and demand ratio will reach 1.4, that is, supply is 40% more than demand, and the supply-to-demand ratio in 2013 is 3. “Although it has been greatly improved compared to the overcapacity situation in 2013, it still needs to be alert to a new round of overcapacity,†the analyst said.
For this phenomenon, Zhao Jiasheng, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and president of the Silicon Industry Branch, also warned that there are various indications that a new round of low-level blind expansion of polysilicon has begun and should be highly valued by the industry.
Domestic production capacity will reach 150,000 tons this year.
This year's wave of polysilicon expansion is booming, and almost all leading polysilicon companies in China have announced their expansion plans.
GCL-Poly's Zhongneng Silicon Industry's 2014 modified Siemens process and the 10,000-ton silane fluidized bed project in mass production will reach an annual capacity of at least 70,000 tons; Xinjiang TBEA's existing annual capacity of 12,000 tons will be At the same time, WACKER will invest in a new project with an annual capacity of 36,000 tons in Xinjiang with TBEA; the new energy capacity will be expanded from the original 6200 tons to 12,000 this year. In ton, it will expand production by 13,000 tons in 2015, reaching a total capacity of 25,000 tons; Inner Mongolia Shenzhou Silicon Industry will expand to 3,000-4,000 tons.
According to the above data, it is estimated that the domestic polysilicon production capacity will reach 150,000 tons in 2014. In the past 2013 alone, in order to curb the overcapacity of polysilicon, according to the “Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry†(Guo Fa [2013] No. 24), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also issued the “Regulations for the PV Manufacturing Industryâ€. ", the elimination of some polysilicon enterprises with backward technology and outdated equipment.
Zhao Jiasheng said that in areas with rich coal resources such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, there are still plans for new projects with an annual output of 10,000 tons or even 50,000 tons. According to information from an industry authority on 21st Century Business Herald, Inner Mongolia Fengwei Silicon will expand its production capacity to 50,000 tons by March 2015, and its current production capacity is around 6,000 tons. On the other hand, although China last year reversed the imports of polysilicon products from Europe and the United States, the amount of imported polysilicon is still increasing. Statistics show that China's polysilicon imports in 2013 were about 80,000 tons, still maintaining a high level, and the proportion of the domestic demand market remained at around 50% for several consecutive years. In 2014, Germany's Wacker and OCI and other large factories have expansion plans, Hanwha, Samsung [microblogging] and so on will also have 10,000-ton capacity to achieve mass production, Japan's Deshan in Malaysia's second phase of 14,000 tons capacity is expected In the next year, the main areas of production will be in China.
Technical genre battle
Zhao Jiasheng believes that if China's polysilicon enterprises compete for market expansion in spite of market demand, coupled with the influx of overseas polysilicon, the momentum of domestic polysilicon supply and demand balance will soon be broken, and the photovoltaic industry may return to the winter of 2012. The break of the balance between supply and demand also means that the price of polysilicon may fall back to the trough of last year.
In this regard, GCL-Poly, deputy general manager Lu Jinbiao told 21st Century Business Herald: The price of polysilicon reached its lowest point in history last year, with an average of only US$17/kg per year, which has risen since the fourth quarter and has now exceeded 20 USD/kg, and whether the price of polysilicon will fluctuate this year, also depends on the mass production of new technology silane fluidized bed in the fourth quarter.
What is more serious is that “the current domestic enterprises are almost all adopting the modified Siemens process, and overseas, the silane fluidized bed process has come to the fore.†Zhao Jiasheng told reporters.
According to Lu Jinbiao, the advantages of the silane fluidized bed process are: first, it can save a lot of energy, and the silane fluidized bed consumes less than 25 degrees in the whole process, which is about 35% of the best modified Siemens method; second , to reduce costs, the second generation of the third generation of silane fluidized bed technology mass production, can reduce the full cost of polysilicon to less than 10 US dollars / kg, is now half of the best modified Siemens law.
He also told reporters that this year, GCL-Poly will have a 10,000-ton silane fluidized bed project into the equipment installation stage. At present, it is not yet possible to estimate the amount of production, but GCL-Poly has planned to gradually phase out all the improvements it has in three years. Siemens law project.
It is also known that silane fluidized bed technology is also being tested in other Chinese companies. The US REC and Shaanxi Tianhong have just signed a construction agreement of 18,000 tons of regular energy not long ago, and it is expected to start production in 2016 or 2017. Prior to this, REC USA had 1.8 tons of silane fluidized bed in operation, which is the only production line in the world except for the 1,000-ton test project of GCL-Poly.
Zhao Jiasheng said that in view of the new technological revolution, the polysilicon industry with the improved Siemens method as its core cannot be blindly rebuilt in the period of technological transformation, and it will stop production due to lack of competitiveness after the project is completed.
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