Contradictions between supply and demand in the paper industry will gradually ease

In a global environment with sluggish economic growth and a slowdown in the domestic economy, last year China's papermaking industry as a whole continued to maintain a growth trend. The balance between production and sales was basically balanced, but the overall economic efficiency of the industry was greatly declining, and the company's living conditions were worrisome.

The “12th Five-Year Plan” of the papermaking industry clearly stated that it will control the growth of capacity in the industry and limit the growth rate of capacity expansion. Newly-added capacity will obviously decline this year. The lower profitability of the industry will reduce the attractiveness of capital, and the supply increase will also decline in the future. However, industry demand will recover as the economy gradually recovers. It is expected that the supply and demand inequality in the industry in the next two years will gradually ease and improve.

According to changes in supply and demand, it is expected that the varieties of supply and demand improvement this year will be coated paper and linerboard respectively, while the white cardboard will be released due to new production capacity. The contradiction between supply and demand may intensify, and the production of cultural paper is due to the conversion of some coated paper production lines. The squeeze on demand from the network and new electronic products will not be obvious.

According to the production of coated paper and market conditions this year, it is estimated that the domestic production volume of coated paper will be about 7 million tons, an increase of about 9.4%; the export volume will be about 1.5 million tons, an increase of about 8.7% year-on-year; the import volume will be about 300,000 tons. . The annual consumption was about 5.8 million tons, an increase of 9%.

Coated paper was released from the newly added production capacity in the earlier period, and exports were affected by the “double reverse”. The contradiction between supply and demand was more prominent, and the product price and profitability were always at the bottom. However, in the future, there will be no new production capacity for coated paper, and the gradual recovery of the economy will promote the recovery of downstream industry demand. The prices and profitability of coated paper in the future are expected to bottom out.

In the aspect of cultural paper, according to the release of domestic newly-built and expanded production capacity and the elimination of backward production capacity and the reduction in production of small and medium-sized enterprises, it is estimated that uncoated printing and writing paper will be able to complete approximately 17.6 million tons this year, an increase of approximately 1.7% over the previous year, and imports of approximately 38%. Ten thousand tons, export about 950,000 tons. The annual consumption is about 17 million tons, an increase of about 0.8%. In the future, there will not be much new capacity for cultural paper, but it is necessary to take into account that some coated paper machines can be used to produce offset paper. At the same time, the demand for cultural paper has been relatively stable. In recent years, due to the popularity of the Internet and new electronic products, e-books have caused a certain impact on the demand for paper-based books. Therefore, changes in supply and demand conditions are limited in the future, and the elasticity of price and profitability is expected to be limited.

According to the release of new production capacity and the reduction in production of small and medium-sized enterprises due to market factors, as well as the import and export of whiteboard paper and white cardboard this year, the domestic production of whiteboard paper is expected to be around 14 million tons this year, an increase of approximately 4.5% year-on-year, with an import volume of 75. About 10,000 tons, the export volume is about 850,000 tons. The annual consumption was approximately 13.9 million tons, an increase of approximately 5.1% year-on-year.

Last year, the production and sales of domestic whiteboard paper products were basically stable. However, judging from the construction projects known to some paper companies, this year's new production capacity will increase, market competition will intensify, and it will be difficult to achieve better performance in the later period. It is expected that the prices will be more difficult to increase in the later period, and the average price may be higher than 2012. Declined.

According to analysis of the production capacity of the newly-built production lines of Zhilong Paper, Ji'an Group, Fujian Liansheng, Century Sunshine, Guihe Xianxing and other paper companies, and the elimination of outdated production capacity, the analysis of the output reduction of small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to produce 20.70 million domestic containerboards this year. About tons, an increase of about 4% year-on-year, imports of 870,000 tons, exports of about 70,000 tons. The annual consumption is about 21.5 million tons. It is estimated that the production capacity of corrugated paper will be about 20.2 million tons this year, an increase of about 2% year-on-year, with an import volume of about 150,000 tons and an export volume of 60,000 tons. The annual consumption is expected to be around 20.3 million tons, an increase of about 2% year-on-year.

Boxboard paper still has a small amount of new production capacity put into operation this year, but the quantity has dropped significantly from the previous period, and the elasticity of the demand for containerboard paper for economic recovery is the largest among industrial paper types. Therefore, the price and profitability of post-container paper will rebound.