The latest fiscal year survey shows that economists believe that China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate may continue to fall below 8% in the second quarter. Economists from 21 financial and research institutions participated in the survey. Ten institutions made a forecast for GDP growth in the second quarter, with a mean and median of 7.8%. Eight are expected to be below 8%, with a minimum forecast of 7.5%; only two believe that the growth rate is at or above 8%, with a maximum forecast of 8.2%. Although ANZ did not give specific forecasts, Liu Ligang, chief economist of Greater China, said last week that the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated that China’s manufacturing industry may be under pressure, which is also a certain degree. It is indicated that the final data of industrial added value in May and June may be significantly lower than market expectations. China's GDP growth rate in the second quarter is likely to fall below 8%. Bank of Communications believes that the economic growth rate in the second quarter may still be low, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter will be reduced to about 7.8%. Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, believes that the simultaneous slowdown in exports and investment is the main reason for the economic weakness in the first half of the year. On the one hand, there has not been a fundamental turnaround in the European debt crisis, and China’s external demand has continued to weaken. On the other hand, from the inherent kinetic energy of investment, the investment in real estate development has slowed sharply; manufacturing investment is affected by the international economic weakness, real estate investment and Corporate earnings fell and fell. In the first four months of this year, the national real estate development investment increased by 18.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 4.8 percentage points from January to March. Goldman Sachs Gao Hua has previously lowered China's second-quarter GDP growth forecast from 8.5% to 7.9%, but believes that China's macroeconomic policy will be more relaxed in the next phase, and the growth rate of the real economy will accelerate. In the second half of the year, infrastructure investment spending will accelerate growth, bank lending will begin to accelerate, and fiscal expenditures within the budget will increase slightly. The financial investigation shows that the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment in January-May is expected to be 19.6% (average), which is down from April. Export and import growth in May is expected to accelerate from April, with the average of the Caixin survey increasing by 7.4% and 4.6% respectively. Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, expects investment growth to continue to fall in May. Although the infrastructure investment project has been fully launched, the short-term is still not enough to fully hedge the impact of the decline in real estate investment, while manufacturing investment is expected to slow down slightly. On the whole, it is expected that fixed asset investment in the first five months is expected to increase by 19.8% year-on-year, which is somewhat lower than that in April. For exports, he expects a slight increase in import and export growth in May. As the US economy continues its moderate recovery, China's export growth to the US may increase further in May, supporting the overall export growth rate to rebound slightly from April. In addition, the Caixin survey showed that economists had a forecast average of 10% for the growth rate of industrial added value in May, and the average growth rate of total retail sales of social goods was 14.3%, slightly faster than that in April.
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